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From monitoring of seismic fields to the automatic forecasting of earthquakes

From monitoring of seismic fields to the automatic forecasting of earthquakes The purpose of this paper is to offer two Web-based platforms for systematic analysis of seismic processes. Both platforms are designed to analyze and forecast the state of the environment and, in particular, the level of seismic hazard. The first platform analyzes the fields representing the properties of the seismic process; the second platform forecasts strong earthquakes. Earthquake forecasting is based on a new one-class classification method.Design/methodology/approachThe paper suggests an approach to systematic forecasting of earthquakes and examines the results of tests. This approach is based on a new method of machine learning, called the method of the minimum area of alarm. The method allows to construct a forecast rule that optimizes the probability of detecting target earthquakes in a learning sample set, provided that the area of the alarm zone does not exceed a predetermined one.FindingsThe paper presents two platforms alongside the method of analysis. It was shown that these platforms can be used for systematic analysis of seismic process. By testing of the earthquake forecasting method in several regions, it was shown that the method of the minimum area of alarm has satisfactory forecast quality.Originality/valueThe described technology has two advantages: simplicity of configuration for a new problem area and a combination of interactive easy analysis supported by intuitive operations and a simplified user interface with a detailed, comprehensive analysis of spatio-temporal processes intended for specialists. The method of the minimum area of alarm solves the problem of one-class classification. The method is original. It uses in training the precedents of anomalous objects and statistically takes into account normal objects. http://www.deepdyve.com/assets/images/DeepDyve-Logo-lg.png International Journal of Web Information Systems Emerald Publishing

From monitoring of seismic fields to the automatic forecasting of earthquakes

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Publisher
Emerald Publishing
Copyright
© Emerald Publishing Limited
ISSN
1744-0084
DOI
10.1108/ijwis-12-2018-0087
Publisher site
See Article on Publisher Site

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to offer two Web-based platforms for systematic analysis of seismic processes. Both platforms are designed to analyze and forecast the state of the environment and, in particular, the level of seismic hazard. The first platform analyzes the fields representing the properties of the seismic process; the second platform forecasts strong earthquakes. Earthquake forecasting is based on a new one-class classification method.Design/methodology/approachThe paper suggests an approach to systematic forecasting of earthquakes and examines the results of tests. This approach is based on a new method of machine learning, called the method of the minimum area of alarm. The method allows to construct a forecast rule that optimizes the probability of detecting target earthquakes in a learning sample set, provided that the area of the alarm zone does not exceed a predetermined one.FindingsThe paper presents two platforms alongside the method of analysis. It was shown that these platforms can be used for systematic analysis of seismic process. By testing of the earthquake forecasting method in several regions, it was shown that the method of the minimum area of alarm has satisfactory forecast quality.Originality/valueThe described technology has two advantages: simplicity of configuration for a new problem area and a combination of interactive easy analysis supported by intuitive operations and a simplified user interface with a detailed, comprehensive analysis of spatio-temporal processes intended for specialists. The method of the minimum area of alarm solves the problem of one-class classification. The method is original. It uses in training the precedents of anomalous objects and statistically takes into account normal objects.

Journal

International Journal of Web Information SystemsEmerald Publishing

Published: Oct 15, 2019

Keywords: Earthquake forecasting; Method of the minimum area of alarm; One-class classification method; Seismic hazard monitoring technology; Spatio-temporal data analysis; Web-based GIS platform

References