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Forecasting commercial rental values using ARIMA models

Forecasting commercial rental values using ARIMA models The application of short‐term forecasting techniques to the prediction of commercial rental values generates valuable information about the dynamics of rent movements. It also captures short‐run trends more effectively than do other forecasting procedures. Makes use of ARIMA models to provide one‐step‐ahead predictions. The results show that ARIMA models perform better in the case of retail and office sectors. The forecasts for these sectors are satisfactory. Retail rents bear a relationship to their past values, whereas office rents are influenced by shocks in the market – demand or supply driven. The results of the present study are useful for incorporation in more general models of rent forecasting. Also presents a full methodology which facilitates its application. http://www.deepdyve.com/assets/images/DeepDyve-Logo-lg.png Journal of Property Valuation and Investment Emerald Publishing

Forecasting commercial rental values using ARIMA models

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Publisher
Emerald Publishing
Copyright
Copyright © 1995 MCB UP Ltd. All rights reserved.
ISSN
0960-2712
DOI
10.1108/14635789510147801
Publisher site
See Article on Publisher Site

Abstract

The application of short‐term forecasting techniques to the prediction of commercial rental values generates valuable information about the dynamics of rent movements. It also captures short‐run trends more effectively than do other forecasting procedures. Makes use of ARIMA models to provide one‐step‐ahead predictions. The results show that ARIMA models perform better in the case of retail and office sectors. The forecasts for these sectors are satisfactory. Retail rents bear a relationship to their past values, whereas office rents are influenced by shocks in the market – demand or supply driven. The results of the present study are useful for incorporation in more general models of rent forecasting. Also presents a full methodology which facilitates its application.

Journal

Journal of Property Valuation and InvestmentEmerald Publishing

Published: Dec 1, 1995

Keywords: Commercial property; Industrial property; Property markets; Rental value; Short‐term forecasting; United Kingdom

References