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Financial risk, uncertainty and expected returns: evidence from Chinese equity markets

Financial risk, uncertainty and expected returns: evidence from Chinese equity markets The purpose of this paper is to investigate the risk and economic policy uncertainty (EPU) shocks on China’s equity markets while controlling for changes in sentiments and liquidity.Design/methodology/approachThe GED-TARCH(1,1)-M procedure is used in estimations to deal with the heteroscedasticity problem.FindingsEvidence shows that stock returns are positively correlated with predictable volatility and lagged downside risk. This study indicates that the stock returns are negatively correlated with both local and global uncertainty innovations. The test results are robust across different measures of stock returns and model specifications. The global EPU innovations have more profound impact on stock returns than that of Chinese EPU.Research limitations/implicationsThe findings are based on the data in the China’s stock market, other global markets may be considered in the future research.Practical implicationsEvidence indicates that a rise in EPU produces a negative effect on stock returns at the time news hits a market; however, investors will be rewarded by a premium as prices rebound in the subsequent period for compensating the investment decision made at a high uncertainty period.Originality/valueThe excess stock returns are negatively related to the EPU innovations, regardless of whether EPU originates from a domestic source or external sources. http://www.deepdyve.com/assets/images/DeepDyve-Logo-lg.png China Finance Review International Emerald Publishing

Financial risk, uncertainty and expected returns: evidence from Chinese equity markets

Chiang, Thomas C.
China Finance Review International , Volume 9 (4): 30 – Nov 1, 2019
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30 pages

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Publisher
Emerald Publishing
Copyright
© Emerald Publishing Limited
ISSN
2044-1398
DOI
10.1108/cfri-09-2018-0129
Publisher site
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Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the risk and economic policy uncertainty (EPU) shocks on China’s equity markets while controlling for changes in sentiments and liquidity.Design/methodology/approachThe GED-TARCH(1,1)-M procedure is used in estimations to deal with the heteroscedasticity problem.FindingsEvidence shows that stock returns are positively correlated with predictable volatility and lagged downside risk. This study indicates that the stock returns are negatively correlated with both local and global uncertainty innovations. The test results are robust across different measures of stock returns and model specifications. The global EPU innovations have more profound impact on stock returns than that of Chinese EPU.Research limitations/implicationsThe findings are based on the data in the China’s stock market, other global markets may be considered in the future research.Practical implicationsEvidence indicates that a rise in EPU produces a negative effect on stock returns at the time news hits a market; however, investors will be rewarded by a premium as prices rebound in the subsequent period for compensating the investment decision made at a high uncertainty period.Originality/valueThe excess stock returns are negatively related to the EPU innovations, regardless of whether EPU originates from a domestic source or external sources.

Journal

China Finance Review International – Emerald Publishing

Published: Nov 1, 2019

Keywords: Downside risk; Chinese stock market; Economic policy uncertainty; G11; G12; G15

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