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Estimating replacement demand: lessons from Ireland

Estimating replacement demand: lessons from Ireland Purpose – This paper seeks to examine the use of the cohort component method as a method of deriving replacement demand for manpower forecasting. Design/methodology/approach – The paper explains the principal concepts of replacement demand and how replacement demand has been estimated in two alternative ways: the cohort component method and using longitudinal data on individuals. The paper focuses on one of these ways, the cohort component method, and illustrates how this method can fail to capture all the relevant flows driving replacement demand. It also compares the method to the alternative approach based on individual data and discusses US and Irish results using both methods. Findings – The cohort component method is found to underestimate replacement demand significantly in many occupations. Research limitations/implications – Research estimates of replacement demand should be based on individual longitudinal data rather than the cohort component method. Originality/value – Many countries undertake some form of occupational employment forecasting including, in many cases, making estimates of replacement demand. This paper should help to clarify the appropriate choice of methodology for estimating replacement demand. http://www.deepdyve.com/assets/images/DeepDyve-Logo-lg.png International Journal of Manpower Emerald Publishing

Estimating replacement demand: lessons from Ireland

International Journal of Manpower , Volume 29 (4): 14 – Jul 11, 2008

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Publisher
Emerald Publishing
Copyright
Copyright © 2008 Emerald Group Publishing Limited. All rights reserved.
ISSN
0143-7720
DOI
10.1108/01437720810884755
Publisher site
See Article on Publisher Site

Abstract

Purpose – This paper seeks to examine the use of the cohort component method as a method of deriving replacement demand for manpower forecasting. Design/methodology/approach – The paper explains the principal concepts of replacement demand and how replacement demand has been estimated in two alternative ways: the cohort component method and using longitudinal data on individuals. The paper focuses on one of these ways, the cohort component method, and illustrates how this method can fail to capture all the relevant flows driving replacement demand. It also compares the method to the alternative approach based on individual data and discusses US and Irish results using both methods. Findings – The cohort component method is found to underestimate replacement demand significantly in many occupations. Research limitations/implications – Research estimates of replacement demand should be based on individual longitudinal data rather than the cohort component method. Originality/value – Many countries undertake some form of occupational employment forecasting including, in many cases, making estimates of replacement demand. This paper should help to clarify the appropriate choice of methodology for estimating replacement demand.

Journal

International Journal of ManpowerEmerald Publishing

Published: Jul 11, 2008

Keywords: Manpower planning; Forecasting; Supply and demand

References