Get 20M+ Full-Text Papers For Less Than $1.50/day. Start a 14-Day Trial for You or Your Team.

Learn More →

Estimates of time‐varying term premia for New Zealand and Australia

Estimates of time‐varying term premia for New Zealand and Australia Forward rates in the money market are systematically higher than realised spot rates, reflecting an unobservable term premium. This paper uses a Kalman filter specification to produce time‐varying estimates of the term premia in New Zealand and Australia. Three time series specifications are used to examine the properties of the premia, such as the average size, volatility, and the degree of mean reversion. Compared to the constant term premia estimates, the time‐varying estimates explain significantly more of the difference between forward and spot rates. The results suggest that the premium in New Zealand is slowly mean‐reverting, while the Australian premium reverts quickly to the mean. It is not clear whether the method of monetary policy implementation affects the term premium, although in New Zealand the premium has been smaller and less variable since the introduction of the Official Cash Rate in March 1999. A related finding is that the size of the term premium is correlated with the volatility of short‐term rates. http://www.deepdyve.com/assets/images/DeepDyve-Logo-lg.png Managerial Finance Emerald Publishing

Estimates of time‐varying term premia for New Zealand and Australia

Michael Gordon
Managerial Finance , Volume 30 (7): 24 – Jul 1, 2004
Download PDF
24 pages

Loading next page...
 
/lp/emerald-publishing/estimates-of-time-varying-term-premia-for-new-zealand-and-australia-KPkqi1DNlK

References (12)

Publisher
Emerald Publishing
Copyright
Copyright © 2004 Emerald Group Publishing Limited. All rights reserved.
ISSN
0307-4358
DOI
10.1108/03074350410769164
Publisher site
See Article on Publisher Site

Abstract

Forward rates in the money market are systematically higher than realised spot rates, reflecting an unobservable term premium. This paper uses a Kalman filter specification to produce time‐varying estimates of the term premia in New Zealand and Australia. Three time series specifications are used to examine the properties of the premia, such as the average size, volatility, and the degree of mean reversion. Compared to the constant term premia estimates, the time‐varying estimates explain significantly more of the difference between forward and spot rates. The results suggest that the premium in New Zealand is slowly mean‐reverting, while the Australian premium reverts quickly to the mean. It is not clear whether the method of monetary policy implementation affects the term premium, although in New Zealand the premium has been smaller and less variable since the introduction of the Official Cash Rate in March 1999. A related finding is that the size of the term premium is correlated with the volatility of short‐term rates.

Journal

Managerial Finance – Emerald Publishing

Published: Jul 1, 2004

Keywords: Pricing; Money; Financing; New Zealand; Australia

There are no references for this article.