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Eight conjectures about exchange rates

Eight conjectures about exchange rates This paper examines and dissects eight popular conjectures about exchange rates. The conjectures are: there exists a systematic linkage between economic fundamentals and exchange rates; flexible exchange rates are unstable due to destabilising speculation; flexible exchange rates are excessively volatile; the foreign exchange market is efficient; purchasing power parity holds; volatile exchange rates are harmful to trade; depreciating exchange rates trigger a “vicious” inflationary circle; and countries with current account deficits have depreciating exchange rates. The main message is that there is weak theoretical and empirical support for the majority of the conjectures. Only one proposition, relative PPP has strong empirical support but its policy relevance is weakened by the difficulty of interpreting departures from PPP. The remaining group for which there is inconclusive support presents the greatest challenge to research and policy as it includes the first conjecture. http://www.deepdyve.com/assets/images/DeepDyve-Logo-lg.png Journal of Economic Studies Emerald Publishing

Eight conjectures about exchange rates

Journal of Economic Studies , Volume 31 (6): 25 – Dec 1, 2004

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Publisher
Emerald Publishing
Copyright
Copyright © 2004 Emerald Group Publishing Limited. All rights reserved.
ISSN
0144-3585
DOI
10.1108/01443580410569262
Publisher site
See Article on Publisher Site

Abstract

This paper examines and dissects eight popular conjectures about exchange rates. The conjectures are: there exists a systematic linkage between economic fundamentals and exchange rates; flexible exchange rates are unstable due to destabilising speculation; flexible exchange rates are excessively volatile; the foreign exchange market is efficient; purchasing power parity holds; volatile exchange rates are harmful to trade; depreciating exchange rates trigger a “vicious” inflationary circle; and countries with current account deficits have depreciating exchange rates. The main message is that there is weak theoretical and empirical support for the majority of the conjectures. Only one proposition, relative PPP has strong empirical support but its policy relevance is weakened by the difficulty of interpreting departures from PPP. The remaining group for which there is inconclusive support presents the greatest challenge to research and policy as it includes the first conjecture.

Journal

Journal of Economic StudiesEmerald Publishing

Published: Dec 1, 2004

Keywords: Exchange rates; Monetary policy; Economic reform; International economics

References