Does trade interdependency lead linkages between stock markets? A case of South Asian countries

Does trade interdependency lead linkages between stock markets? A case of South Asian countries PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to test the dynamic linkages among the stock markets of four South Asian countries (India, Pakistan, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka) in the backdrop of trade interdependency.Design/methodology/approachListed indices are used to serve the proxy of stock markets of four countries for the period: January 2000–December 2018. The study uses the autoregressive distributed lag model and Granger causality techniques in multivariate frameworks while focusing on intraregional trade as an exogenous factor for testing the long- and short-run causality in the given data set, hence raising the quality of statistical inference.FindingsThe results highlight that India and Pakistan are net exporters to the South Asian region, while Bangladesh and Sri Lanka are net importers from the region. While testing the stock markets linkages, the expanded intraregional trade volumes (exports plus imports) have occurred with the significant cointegration of stock markets of India and Pakistan with the other stock markets in the long run. In the short run, the stock markets of India, Pakistan and Sri Lanka report bidirectional causality without having significant spillovers of intraregional trade on the stock prices.Research limitations/implicationsThe study relies on the multivariate techniques with stock prices and regional trade share as the exogenous variables. Further the regulatory, political and economic conditions of sample countries are fundamentally different which in turn affect their degree of trade interdependency and integration between the stock markets.Practical implicationsNonsignificant cointegration of the stock markets of Sri Lanka and Bangladesh highlights the possibility of portfolio diversification in the long run, while the significant bidirectional causalities between the stock markets highlight the lesser degree of portfolio diversifications in the short run.Originality/valuePioneer efforts are made to examine the dynamic linkages between the South Asian stock markets while focusing on regional trade interdependency. The results provide new insight in the dynamics of stock returns of South Asian stock markets in the backdrop of intraregional trade. http://www.deepdyve.com/assets/images/DeepDyve-Logo-lg.png International Journal of Emerging Markets Emerald Publishing

Does trade interdependency lead linkages between stock markets? A case of South Asian countries

International Journal of Emerging Markets, Volume 15 (3): 17 – Sep 16, 2019

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Publisher
Emerald Publishing
Copyright
Copyright © Emerald Group Publishing Limited
ISSN
1746-8809
DOI
10.1108/IJOEM-08-2018-0446
Publisher site
See Article on Publisher Site

Abstract

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to test the dynamic linkages among the stock markets of four South Asian countries (India, Pakistan, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka) in the backdrop of trade interdependency.Design/methodology/approachListed indices are used to serve the proxy of stock markets of four countries for the period: January 2000–December 2018. The study uses the autoregressive distributed lag model and Granger causality techniques in multivariate frameworks while focusing on intraregional trade as an exogenous factor for testing the long- and short-run causality in the given data set, hence raising the quality of statistical inference.FindingsThe results highlight that India and Pakistan are net exporters to the South Asian region, while Bangladesh and Sri Lanka are net importers from the region. While testing the stock markets linkages, the expanded intraregional trade volumes (exports plus imports) have occurred with the significant cointegration of stock markets of India and Pakistan with the other stock markets in the long run. In the short run, the stock markets of India, Pakistan and Sri Lanka report bidirectional causality without having significant spillovers of intraregional trade on the stock prices.Research limitations/implicationsThe study relies on the multivariate techniques with stock prices and regional trade share as the exogenous variables. Further the regulatory, political and economic conditions of sample countries are fundamentally different which in turn affect their degree of trade interdependency and integration between the stock markets.Practical implicationsNonsignificant cointegration of the stock markets of Sri Lanka and Bangladesh highlights the possibility of portfolio diversification in the long run, while the significant bidirectional causalities between the stock markets highlight the lesser degree of portfolio diversifications in the short run.Originality/valuePioneer efforts are made to examine the dynamic linkages between the South Asian stock markets while focusing on regional trade interdependency. The results provide new insight in the dynamics of stock returns of South Asian stock markets in the backdrop of intraregional trade.

Journal

International Journal of Emerging MarketsEmerald Publishing

Published: Sep 16, 2019

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