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Disruption theory as a predictor of innovation success/failure

Disruption theory as a predictor of innovation success/failure Purpose – Executives and managers are in need of research that will elevate the pursuit of successful innovations from a gut‐level, intuition‐driven art to something more closely resembling a science based on repeatable processes with predictable results. this paper aims to address this issue. Design/methodology/approach – Using Intel Corporation's proprietary data the author conducted a number of experiments designed to test disruption theory's impact on predictive accuracy. Findings – After training in the rules of disruptive theory MBA students were up to 50 percent more accurate in correctly identifying the survivors and failures, constructing, collectively, a portfolio with a survival rate of up to 15 percent. Research limitations/implications – Intel's New Business Initiatives (NBI) division provided data on a portfolio of 48 new business ventures that were granted seed financing, a sum that ranged between $250,000 and $2 million, between approximately 1995 and 2005. Practical implications – Disruption theory can deliver statistically significant and practically material improvement in the ability to innovate successfully. Disruption theory can be used to shape existing innovation ideas in ways consistent with the theory's prescriptions. Originality/value – As of now the disruption theory of innovation is the only one with evidence to support the assertion that it can improve predictive accuracy. http://www.deepdyve.com/assets/images/DeepDyve-Logo-lg.png Strategy & Leadership Emerald Publishing

Disruption theory as a predictor of innovation success/failure

Michael E. Raynor
Strategy & Leadership , Volume 39 (4): 4 – Jul 5, 2011
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Publisher
Emerald Publishing
Copyright
Copyright © 2011 Emerald Group Publishing Limited. All rights reserved.
ISSN
1087-8572
DOI
10.1108/10878571111147378
Publisher site
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Abstract

Purpose – Executives and managers are in need of research that will elevate the pursuit of successful innovations from a gut‐level, intuition‐driven art to something more closely resembling a science based on repeatable processes with predictable results. this paper aims to address this issue. Design/methodology/approach – Using Intel Corporation's proprietary data the author conducted a number of experiments designed to test disruption theory's impact on predictive accuracy. Findings – After training in the rules of disruptive theory MBA students were up to 50 percent more accurate in correctly identifying the survivors and failures, constructing, collectively, a portfolio with a survival rate of up to 15 percent. Research limitations/implications – Intel's New Business Initiatives (NBI) division provided data on a portfolio of 48 new business ventures that were granted seed financing, a sum that ranged between $250,000 and $2 million, between approximately 1995 and 2005. Practical implications – Disruption theory can deliver statistically significant and practically material improvement in the ability to innovate successfully. Disruption theory can be used to shape existing innovation ideas in ways consistent with the theory's prescriptions. Originality/value – As of now the disruption theory of innovation is the only one with evidence to support the assertion that it can improve predictive accuracy.

Journal

Strategy & Leadership – Emerald Publishing

Published: Jul 5, 2011

Keywords: Innovation‐driven growth; Innovation frameworks; Repeatable innovation processes; Disruption theory; Predictive accuracy of disruption theory; New business survival rate; New venture success; Innovation portfolio strategy; Innovation; Corporate strategy

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