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Combining forecasts for technology forecasting and decision making

Combining forecasts for technology forecasting and decision making Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to propose an approach to achieve better accuracy in technology forecasting (TF) by providing the concepts of the service components and service composition based on the theory of the combining forecasts. Next, it adopts three quantitative analyses as service components to form service composition. This will support the need of more predictable TF, which raises the accuracy of the quantitative analysis and, at the same time, presents the service composition logic in a consistent manner in the form of customized TF. Design/methodology/approach – This paper provides a systematic analysis of the technology forecasts for third‐generation (3G) telecommunication industry. This systematic approach mainly unifies the Bass model, logit model, and least squares analysis forecasting techniques, along with a reasonable assessment of the scope for the normal curve (±1 standard deviation), and attempts to find the maximum possibility frontier of the predictive value. Findings – Through the integration and comparison of these three techniques, not only can the predicted values of the three forecasting methods be determined, but a preferred solution can also be derived through new methods, and in return, to investigate better accuracy and performances. Such an approach can also integrate the advantages of various methods to provide a prediction interval, as well as objective and realistic projections. Research limitations/implications – This envisaged concept of “service component and service composition” is an integration of backing up in TF instruments in selection and reselection, which in return, provide optimization of service composition and accuracy maximization, as well as better performance prediction. A well‐known limitation of this research is that sudden technology breakthroughs are often unforeseeable in the majority of main‐stream quantitative analyses. Originality/value – Constructing a new effective approach as results of “service component and service composition” can be compared to the traditional research methods such as Delphi method or other mathematical algorithms. This method generally produces higher quality forecasts than those attained from a single source. http://www.deepdyve.com/assets/images/DeepDyve-Logo-lg.png Journal of Technology Management in China Emerald Publishing

Combining forecasts for technology forecasting and decision making

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Publisher
Emerald Publishing
Copyright
Copyright © 2010 Emerald Group Publishing Limited. All rights reserved.
ISSN
1746-8779
DOI
10.1108/17468771011032804
Publisher site
See Article on Publisher Site

Abstract

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to propose an approach to achieve better accuracy in technology forecasting (TF) by providing the concepts of the service components and service composition based on the theory of the combining forecasts. Next, it adopts three quantitative analyses as service components to form service composition. This will support the need of more predictable TF, which raises the accuracy of the quantitative analysis and, at the same time, presents the service composition logic in a consistent manner in the form of customized TF. Design/methodology/approach – This paper provides a systematic analysis of the technology forecasts for third‐generation (3G) telecommunication industry. This systematic approach mainly unifies the Bass model, logit model, and least squares analysis forecasting techniques, along with a reasonable assessment of the scope for the normal curve (±1 standard deviation), and attempts to find the maximum possibility frontier of the predictive value. Findings – Through the integration and comparison of these three techniques, not only can the predicted values of the three forecasting methods be determined, but a preferred solution can also be derived through new methods, and in return, to investigate better accuracy and performances. Such an approach can also integrate the advantages of various methods to provide a prediction interval, as well as objective and realistic projections. Research limitations/implications – This envisaged concept of “service component and service composition” is an integration of backing up in TF instruments in selection and reselection, which in return, provide optimization of service composition and accuracy maximization, as well as better performance prediction. A well‐known limitation of this research is that sudden technology breakthroughs are often unforeseeable in the majority of main‐stream quantitative analyses. Originality/value – Constructing a new effective approach as results of “service component and service composition” can be compared to the traditional research methods such as Delphi method or other mathematical algorithms. This method generally produces higher quality forecasts than those attained from a single source.

Journal

Journal of Technology Management in ChinaEmerald Publishing

Published: Feb 16, 2010

Keywords: Forecasting; Decision making; Telecommunications; Taiwan

References