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Bet doubling in gambling and investing

Bet doubling in gambling and investing Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to analyze strategies for gamblers/investors to increase their chances of reaching certain monetary and/or survival goals while facing a losing proposition. Design/methodology/approach – The paper investigates the use of credit by gamblers/investors as a means of increasing their expected survival time and thus their likelihood of winning. The paper considers a strategy in which a gambler/investor engages in bet doubling and uses credit to maximize the probability of winning a specified amount. Findings – The model presented in this paper identifies the amount of credit that will make it possible for a gambler/investor to become a winner with an arbitrarily high degree of probability, even while facing a losing proposition. However, bet doubling can lead to large losses, and negative profits can be expected if the gambler/investor is faced with unfavorable odds. As an extension, the paper considers the impact of limited liability and finds that in that case, total losses are restricted and the gambler/investor can expect a positive net gain even while facing a losing proposition. It is also shown that the cost of obtaining credit is an important consideration and that it is ill‐advised for a gambler/investor to engage in such a strategy when the cost of credit is high relative to the probability of winning. Originality/value – Although bet doubling is not new to the gambling literature, this paper considers the use of credit as a means of increasing survival time and expected net gain. Applications of the model are particularly useful to gamblers/investors when credit can be obtained at low costs. http://www.deepdyve.com/assets/images/DeepDyve-Logo-lg.png The Journal of Risk Finance Emerald Publishing

Bet doubling in gambling and investing

The Journal of Risk Finance , Volume 12 (4): 15 – Aug 16, 2011

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Publisher
Emerald Publishing
Copyright
Copyright © 2011 Emerald Group Publishing Limited. All rights reserved.
ISSN
1526-5943
DOI
10.1108/15265941111158479
Publisher site
See Article on Publisher Site

Abstract

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to analyze strategies for gamblers/investors to increase their chances of reaching certain monetary and/or survival goals while facing a losing proposition. Design/methodology/approach – The paper investigates the use of credit by gamblers/investors as a means of increasing their expected survival time and thus their likelihood of winning. The paper considers a strategy in which a gambler/investor engages in bet doubling and uses credit to maximize the probability of winning a specified amount. Findings – The model presented in this paper identifies the amount of credit that will make it possible for a gambler/investor to become a winner with an arbitrarily high degree of probability, even while facing a losing proposition. However, bet doubling can lead to large losses, and negative profits can be expected if the gambler/investor is faced with unfavorable odds. As an extension, the paper considers the impact of limited liability and finds that in that case, total losses are restricted and the gambler/investor can expect a positive net gain even while facing a losing proposition. It is also shown that the cost of obtaining credit is an important consideration and that it is ill‐advised for a gambler/investor to engage in such a strategy when the cost of credit is high relative to the probability of winning. Originality/value – Although bet doubling is not new to the gambling literature, this paper considers the use of credit as a means of increasing survival time and expected net gain. Applications of the model are particularly useful to gamblers/investors when credit can be obtained at low costs.

Journal

The Journal of Risk FinanceEmerald Publishing

Published: Aug 16, 2011

Keywords: Bet doubling; Gambling; Investing; Betting; Credit

References