Being without existing: the futures community at a turning point? A comment on Jay Ogilvy's “Facing the fold”

Being without existing: the futures community at a turning point? A comment on Jay Ogilvy's... Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to put the paper by Jay Ogilvy in the context of current debates around the philosophical foundations of future studies. Design/methodology/approach – The paper takes the form of a review and analyzes the current literature on foresight and philosophy of the future. Findings – The paper finds that the practical challenge of taking a “scenaric stance”, as articulated in “Facing the fold”, cannot be addressed without going beyond the typically epistemological solutions proposed by most futurists. Research limitations/implications – The challenge is not finding ways to “know” the future, rather to find ways to live and act with not‐knowing the future. Practical implications – The “scenaric stance” points to a way of embracing what Henri Bergson calls “the continuous creation of unforeseeable novelty.” Social implications – The “scenaric stance” offers one way of addressing the difficult, often deeply painful challenge of reconciling the desire for certainty with the desire to “be free” – in the Senian sense of capacity – by providing a way to embrace ambiguity and spontaneity. Originality/value – The emergence of new solutions to how people think about the future rather than what kind of future reflects a confluence of events in the realms of theory and practice. The reason why one needs to and can rethink how one thinks about the future is original to the present conjuncture. http://www.deepdyve.com/assets/images/DeepDyve-Logo-lg.png foresight Emerald Publishing

Being without existing: the futures community at a turning point? A comment on Jay Ogilvy's “Facing the fold”

foresight, Volume 13 (4): 11 – Jul 19, 2011

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Publisher
Emerald Publishing
Copyright
Copyright © 2011 Emerald Group Publishing Limited. All rights reserved.
ISSN
1463-6689
DOI
10.1108/14636681111153940
Publisher site
See Article on Publisher Site

Abstract

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to put the paper by Jay Ogilvy in the context of current debates around the philosophical foundations of future studies. Design/methodology/approach – The paper takes the form of a review and analyzes the current literature on foresight and philosophy of the future. Findings – The paper finds that the practical challenge of taking a “scenaric stance”, as articulated in “Facing the fold”, cannot be addressed without going beyond the typically epistemological solutions proposed by most futurists. Research limitations/implications – The challenge is not finding ways to “know” the future, rather to find ways to live and act with not‐knowing the future. Practical implications – The “scenaric stance” points to a way of embracing what Henri Bergson calls “the continuous creation of unforeseeable novelty.” Social implications – The “scenaric stance” offers one way of addressing the difficult, often deeply painful challenge of reconciling the desire for certainty with the desire to “be free” – in the Senian sense of capacity – by providing a way to embrace ambiguity and spontaneity. Originality/value – The emergence of new solutions to how people think about the future rather than what kind of future reflects a confluence of events in the realms of theory and practice. The reason why one needs to and can rethink how one thinks about the future is original to the present conjuncture.

Journal

foresightEmerald Publishing

Published: Jul 19, 2011

Keywords: Strategy; Scenario planning; Complexity theory; Risk management; Philosophy; Decision making

References

  • Six Shamanic concepts: charting the between in futures work
    Bussey, M.
  • Anticipatory Behavior in Adaptive Learning Systems

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