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Application of a novel grey forecasting model with time power term to predict China's GDP

Application of a novel grey forecasting model with time power term to predict China's GDP Gross domestic product (GDP) is an important indicator to measure a country's economic development. If the future development trend of a country's GDP can be accurately predicted, it will have a positive effect on the formulation and implementation of the country's future economic development policies. In order to explore the future development trend of China's GDP, the purpose of this paper is to establish a new grey forecasting model with time power term to forecast GDP.Design/methodology/approachFirstly, the shortcomings of the traditional grey prediction model with time power term are found out through analysis, and then the generalized grey prediction model with time power term is established (abbreviated as PTGM (1,1, α) model). Secondly, the PTGM (1,1, α) model is improved by linear interpolation method, and the optimized PTGM (1,1, α) model is established (abbreviated as OPTGM (1,1, α) model), and the parameters of the OPTGM (1,1, α) model are solved by the quantum genetic algorithm. Thirdly, the advantage of the OPTGM (1,1, α) model over the traditional grey models is illustrated by two real cases. Finally the OPTGM (1,1, α) model is used to predict China's GDP from 2020 to 2029.FindingsThe OPTGM (1,1, α) model is more suitable for predicting China's GDP than other grey prediction models.Originality/valueA new grey prediction model with time power term is proposed. http://www.deepdyve.com/assets/images/DeepDyve-Logo-lg.png Grey Systems: Theory and Application Emerald Publishing

Application of a novel grey forecasting model with time power term to predict China's GDP

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Publisher
Emerald Publishing
Copyright
© Emerald Publishing Limited
ISSN
2043-9377
DOI
10.1108/gs-05-2020-0065
Publisher site
See Article on Publisher Site

Abstract

Gross domestic product (GDP) is an important indicator to measure a country's economic development. If the future development trend of a country's GDP can be accurately predicted, it will have a positive effect on the formulation and implementation of the country's future economic development policies. In order to explore the future development trend of China's GDP, the purpose of this paper is to establish a new grey forecasting model with time power term to forecast GDP.Design/methodology/approachFirstly, the shortcomings of the traditional grey prediction model with time power term are found out through analysis, and then the generalized grey prediction model with time power term is established (abbreviated as PTGM (1,1, α) model). Secondly, the PTGM (1,1, α) model is improved by linear interpolation method, and the optimized PTGM (1,1, α) model is established (abbreviated as OPTGM (1,1, α) model), and the parameters of the OPTGM (1,1, α) model are solved by the quantum genetic algorithm. Thirdly, the advantage of the OPTGM (1,1, α) model over the traditional grey models is illustrated by two real cases. Finally the OPTGM (1,1, α) model is used to predict China's GDP from 2020 to 2029.FindingsThe OPTGM (1,1, α) model is more suitable for predicting China's GDP than other grey prediction models.Originality/valueA new grey prediction model with time power term is proposed.

Journal

Grey Systems: Theory and ApplicationEmerald Publishing

Published: Jun 18, 2021

Keywords: Grey prediction model with time power term; Grey system theory; The integral median theorem; GDP

References