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Animal spirits in information cascade

Animal spirits in information cascade Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to better depict the features of individual and group behaviors in sequential decisions under the effect of public belief drift. Design/methodology/approach – In this paper, the authors design a two‐shots game which is closer to decisions condition in the real market by using the method of experimental economics two shots game. Findings – The experimental results show that information cascade occurs more frequently in the second stage and the decision accuracy is decreased. The conclusion may provide experimental evidence for the “Animal Spirits Theory” of Keynes. Additionally, decision‐maker ranking in the middle of the decision sequence systematically deviates from his/her private information in balance state. Originality/value – As existing information cascade theory of one shot decision fails to describe the belief‐dependent mechanism, the authors design the multi‐shots information cascade experiment; in which every individual decision maker has more than one sequential decision chance on the same event. http://www.deepdyve.com/assets/images/DeepDyve-Logo-lg.png Nankai Business Review International Emerald Publishing

Animal spirits in information cascade

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Publisher
Emerald Publishing
Copyright
Copyright © 2012 Emerald Group Publishing Limited. All rights reserved.
ISSN
2040-8749
DOI
10.1108/20408741211244415
Publisher site
See Article on Publisher Site

Abstract

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to better depict the features of individual and group behaviors in sequential decisions under the effect of public belief drift. Design/methodology/approach – In this paper, the authors design a two‐shots game which is closer to decisions condition in the real market by using the method of experimental economics two shots game. Findings – The experimental results show that information cascade occurs more frequently in the second stage and the decision accuracy is decreased. The conclusion may provide experimental evidence for the “Animal Spirits Theory” of Keynes. Additionally, decision‐maker ranking in the middle of the decision sequence systematically deviates from his/her private information in balance state. Originality/value – As existing information cascade theory of one shot decision fails to describe the belief‐dependent mechanism, the authors design the multi‐shots information cascade experiment; in which every individual decision maker has more than one sequential decision chance on the same event.

Journal

Nankai Business Review InternationalEmerald Publishing

Published: Jun 1, 2012

Keywords: Decision making; Information; Individual behaviour; Group behaviour; Information cascade; Belief dependence; Animal spirits; Balance; Experiment

References