An exponential smoothing model for predicting traffic in the library and at the reference desk

An exponential smoothing model for predicting traffic in the library and at the reference desk Purpose – The purpose of this study is to develop a mathematical model that can be used to forecast the number of individuals who enter the library as well as the number of patrons that seek assistance at the reference desk of the library. An accurate estimate of demand at the reference desk is valuable for effective staffing decisions. Design/methodology/approach – An exponential smoothing model (Winter's model) was developed for forecasting. Data were gathered at the University of Tennessee at Chattanooga for an entire year. Using these data, an exponential smoothing model was formulated for forecasting the number of patrons seeking assistance. Since the data showed no trend but the presence of two seasonality factors, one for the week‐of‐the‐semester effect and one for the day‐of‐the‐week effect, the Winter's method appeared to be best suited. The Winter's method develops a formula from the data and allows the formula to be continuously fine‐tuned as new observations come in day after day. Findings – The modified Winter's exponential smoothing model proved to be a good predictor of the number of patrons seeking assistance. In spite of large natural random variability present in the data, the actual values seem to follow the forecasts very closely. Originality/value – It is vital to be able to forecast the number of clients at the reference desk that seek assistance per day. The modified exponential smoothing model is a valuable tool for such forecasting. http://www.deepdyve.com/assets/images/DeepDyve-Logo-lg.png The Bottom Line: Managing Library Finances Emerald Publishing

An exponential smoothing model for predicting traffic in the library and at the reference desk

Loading next page...
 
/lp/emerald-publishing/an-exponential-smoothing-model-for-predicting-traffic-in-the-library-YWxhV34JrG
Publisher
Emerald Publishing
Copyright
Copyright © 2008 Emerald Group Publishing Limited. All rights reserved.
ISSN
0888-045X
DOI
10.1108/08880450810898283
Publisher site
See Article on Publisher Site

Abstract

Purpose – The purpose of this study is to develop a mathematical model that can be used to forecast the number of individuals who enter the library as well as the number of patrons that seek assistance at the reference desk of the library. An accurate estimate of demand at the reference desk is valuable for effective staffing decisions. Design/methodology/approach – An exponential smoothing model (Winter's model) was developed for forecasting. Data were gathered at the University of Tennessee at Chattanooga for an entire year. Using these data, an exponential smoothing model was formulated for forecasting the number of patrons seeking assistance. Since the data showed no trend but the presence of two seasonality factors, one for the week‐of‐the‐semester effect and one for the day‐of‐the‐week effect, the Winter's method appeared to be best suited. The Winter's method develops a formula from the data and allows the formula to be continuously fine‐tuned as new observations come in day after day. Findings – The modified Winter's exponential smoothing model proved to be a good predictor of the number of patrons seeking assistance. In spite of large natural random variability present in the data, the actual values seem to follow the forecasts very closely. Originality/value – It is vital to be able to forecast the number of clients at the reference desk that seek assistance per day. The modified exponential smoothing model is a valuable tool for such forecasting.

Journal

The Bottom Line: Managing Library FinancesEmerald Publishing

Published: Aug 22, 2008

Keywords: Reference services; User studies; Libraries

References

You’re reading a free preview. Subscribe to read the entire article.


DeepDyve is your
personal research library

It’s your single place to instantly
discover and read the research
that matters to you.

Enjoy affordable access to
over 18 million articles from more than
15,000 peer-reviewed journals.

All for just $49/month

Explore the DeepDyve Library

Search

Query the DeepDyve database, plus search all of PubMed and Google Scholar seamlessly

Organize

Save any article or search result from DeepDyve, PubMed, and Google Scholar... all in one place.

Access

Get unlimited, online access to over 18 million full-text articles from more than 15,000 scientific journals.

Your journals are on DeepDyve

Read from thousands of the leading scholarly journals from SpringerNature, Wiley-Blackwell, Oxford University Press and more.

All the latest content is available, no embargo periods.

See the journals in your area

DeepDyve

Freelancer

DeepDyve

Pro

Price

FREE

$49/month
$360/year

Save searches from
Google Scholar,
PubMed

Create folders to
organize your research

Export folders, citations

Read DeepDyve articles

Abstract access only

Unlimited access to over
18 million full-text articles

Print

20 pages / month

PDF Discount

20% off