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An analytical tool for evaluating the impacts of sea level rise response strategies

An analytical tool for evaluating the impacts of sea level rise response strategies Purpose – Over the past century, the rate of sea level rise (SLR) has increased more than twice the average historical rate and the US Environmental Protection Agency estimates that by 2100 the sea level will increase nearly two feet in many coastal areas. Property owners and municipalities typically respond to SLR by constructing seawalls and similar structures to protect shoreline property (a practice known as “armoring”). The degree to which SLR and armoring threaten key coastal habitats has not been well studied, however. This study, aims to develop an inundation model on behalf of Stratus Consulting to examine anticipated habitat changes in coastal Ocean County, New Jersey. Design/methodology/approach – The model used a geographical information system to map predicted changes in coastal habitats under two alternative SLR scenarios and six different shoreline armoring scenarios. The paper then used information from local experts and the scientific literature to predict changes in the relative abundances of fish and bird species under the different scenarios. Findings – Under all scenarios, the model predicted substantial declines in the areal extent of Spartina marshes and in the annual production of finfish and shrimp. Declines in these marsh‐dependent species would have significant impacts on commercial and recreational fisheries. The study also predicted substantial declines in bird species such as songbirds and dabbling ducks. Originality/value – The results of the study can help local stakeholders and decision‐makers plan responses to SLR. Conventional armoring responses could result in substantial and irreversible losses of coastal habitats and the species dependent on these habitats. http://www.deepdyve.com/assets/images/DeepDyve-Logo-lg.png Management of Environmental Quality: An International Journal Emerald Publishing

An analytical tool for evaluating the impacts of sea level rise response strategies

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Publisher
Emerald Publishing
Copyright
Copyright © 2009 Emerald Group Publishing Limited. All rights reserved.
ISSN
1477-7835
DOI
10.1108/14777830910963735
Publisher site
See Article on Publisher Site

Abstract

Purpose – Over the past century, the rate of sea level rise (SLR) has increased more than twice the average historical rate and the US Environmental Protection Agency estimates that by 2100 the sea level will increase nearly two feet in many coastal areas. Property owners and municipalities typically respond to SLR by constructing seawalls and similar structures to protect shoreline property (a practice known as “armoring”). The degree to which SLR and armoring threaten key coastal habitats has not been well studied, however. This study, aims to develop an inundation model on behalf of Stratus Consulting to examine anticipated habitat changes in coastal Ocean County, New Jersey. Design/methodology/approach – The model used a geographical information system to map predicted changes in coastal habitats under two alternative SLR scenarios and six different shoreline armoring scenarios. The paper then used information from local experts and the scientific literature to predict changes in the relative abundances of fish and bird species under the different scenarios. Findings – Under all scenarios, the model predicted substantial declines in the areal extent of Spartina marshes and in the annual production of finfish and shrimp. Declines in these marsh‐dependent species would have significant impacts on commercial and recreational fisheries. The study also predicted substantial declines in bird species such as songbirds and dabbling ducks. Originality/value – The results of the study can help local stakeholders and decision‐makers plan responses to SLR. Conventional armoring responses could result in substantial and irreversible losses of coastal habitats and the species dependent on these habitats.

Journal

Management of Environmental Quality: An International Journal – Emerald Publishing

Published: Jun 12, 2009

Keywords: Ecology; Global warming; Geographic information systems; New Jersey

References

  • Effects of common reed ( Phragmites australis ) invasion on marsh surface macrofauna: response of fishes and decapod crustaceans
    Able, K.W.; Hagan, S.M.
  • Vegetation type and the intertidal macroinvertebrate fauna of a brackish marsh: Phragmites vs Spartina
    Angradi, T.R.; Hagan, S.M.; Able, K.W.
  • Greenhouse Effect and Sea Level Rise: A Challenge for this Generation
    Barth, M.C.; Titus, J.G.