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An analysis of technology trends within the electronics industry

An analysis of technology trends within the electronics industry This paper begins with a brief review of previous work in the field of technology forecasting and discusses the Fisher Pry model in particular, before concluding with an attempt at forecasting the rate of development of smart technology. The Fisher Pry model is shown to fit well with an assumed ultimate microprocessor clock speed of 1.2GHz. By combining data from multiple sources support is found for the hypothesis that rates of development can be correlated with development activity, as measured by the number of US patents filed in specific technology areas. A forecast for the development of smart technology is made to demonstrate how the models may be used to generate forecasts of future developments, where limited data are available. http://www.deepdyve.com/assets/images/DeepDyve-Logo-lg.png Microelectronics International Emerald Publishing

An analysis of technology trends within the electronics industry

Microelectronics International , Volume 17 (1): 4 – Apr 1, 2000

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Publisher
Emerald Publishing
Copyright
Copyright © Emerald Group Publishing Limited
ISSN
1356-5362
DOI
10.1108/13565360010305877
Publisher site
See Article on Publisher Site

Abstract

This paper begins with a brief review of previous work in the field of technology forecasting and discusses the Fisher Pry model in particular, before concluding with an attempt at forecasting the rate of development of smart technology. The Fisher Pry model is shown to fit well with an assumed ultimate microprocessor clock speed of 1.2GHz. By combining data from multiple sources support is found for the hypothesis that rates of development can be correlated with development activity, as measured by the number of US patents filed in specific technology areas. A forecast for the development of smart technology is made to demonstrate how the models may be used to generate forecasts of future developments, where limited data are available.

Journal

Microelectronics InternationalEmerald Publishing

Published: Apr 1, 2000

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