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References (4)
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C. Crowe (1996)
Research to products, 2721
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10.1007/BF02461128
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B. Twiss (1992)
Forecasting for technologists and engineers -
J. Fisher, R. Pry (1971)
A simple substitution model of technological changeTechnological Forecasting and Social Change, 3
- Publisher
- Emerald Publishing
- Copyright
- Copyright © Emerald Group Publishing Limited
- ISSN
- 1356-5362
- DOI
- 10.1108/13565360010305877
- Publisher site
- See Article on Publisher Site
Abstract
This paper begins with a brief review of previous work in the field of technology forecasting and discusses the Fisher Pry model in particular, before concluding with an attempt at forecasting the rate of development of smart technology. The Fisher Pry model is shown to fit well with an assumed ultimate microprocessor clock speed of 1.2GHz. By combining data from multiple sources support is found for the hypothesis that rates of development can be correlated with development activity, as measured by the number of US patents filed in specific technology areas. A forecast for the development of smart technology is made to demonstrate how the models may be used to generate forecasts of future developments, where limited data are available.
Journal
Microelectronics International – Emerald Publishing
Published: Apr 1, 2000