A note on probabilistic confidence of the stock market ILS interval forecasts

A note on probabilistic confidence of the stock market ILS interval forecasts Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to associate a probabilistic confidence with the stock market interval forecasts obtained with the interval least squares (ILS) algorithm. The term probabilistic confidence in this paper means the probability of a point observation that will fall in the interval forecast. Design/methodology/approach – Using confidence interval as input, annual ILS forecasts of the stock market were made. Then the probability of point observation that fall in the annual forecasts was examined empirically. Findings – When using confidence interval as ILS input, the stock market annual interval forecasts may have the same level of confidence as that of the input intervals. Research limitations/implications – At the same confidence level, the ILS can produce much better quality forecasts than the traditional ordinary least squares method for the stock market. Although the algorithmic approach can be applied to analyze other datasets, one should examine implications of computational results as always. Practical implications – Results of this specific paper may be interesting to executive officers, other financial decision makers and to investors. Originality/value – Although the ILS algorithm has been recently developed in forecasting the variability of the stock market, this paper presents the first successful attempt in associating a probabilistic confidence with ILS interval forecasts. http://www.deepdyve.com/assets/images/DeepDyve-Logo-lg.png The Journal of Risk Finance Emerald Publishing

A note on probabilistic confidence of the stock market ILS interval forecasts

The Journal of Risk Finance, Volume 11 (4): 6 – Aug 17, 2010

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Publisher
Emerald Publishing
Copyright
Copyright © 2010 Emerald Group Publishing Limited. All rights reserved.
ISSN
1526-5943
DOI
10.1108/15265941011071539
Publisher site
See Article on Publisher Site

Abstract

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to associate a probabilistic confidence with the stock market interval forecasts obtained with the interval least squares (ILS) algorithm. The term probabilistic confidence in this paper means the probability of a point observation that will fall in the interval forecast. Design/methodology/approach – Using confidence interval as input, annual ILS forecasts of the stock market were made. Then the probability of point observation that fall in the annual forecasts was examined empirically. Findings – When using confidence interval as ILS input, the stock market annual interval forecasts may have the same level of confidence as that of the input intervals. Research limitations/implications – At the same confidence level, the ILS can produce much better quality forecasts than the traditional ordinary least squares method for the stock market. Although the algorithmic approach can be applied to analyze other datasets, one should examine implications of computational results as always. Practical implications – Results of this specific paper may be interesting to executive officers, other financial decision makers and to investors. Originality/value – Although the ILS algorithm has been recently developed in forecasting the variability of the stock market, this paper presents the first successful attempt in associating a probabilistic confidence with ILS interval forecasts.

Journal

The Journal of Risk FinanceEmerald Publishing

Published: Aug 17, 2010

Keywords: Least square approximation; Stock markets; Economic forecasting; Probabilistic analysis

References

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