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A dynamic manpower forecasting model for the information security industry

A dynamic manpower forecasting model for the information security industry Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to develop an integrated model for manpower forecasting for the information security (IS) industry, one of the fastest growing IT‐related industries. The proposed model incorporates three critical factors (feedback structure, time lags, and a flexible saturation point) in a system dynamics (SD) simulation frame. Design/methodology/approach – A simulation model using SD is developed for a dynamic manpower forecasting by decomposing complex processes of manpower planning into a set of feedback loops with a causal‐loop diagram. Data gathered from a Korean Government agency were utilized in the simulation for forecasting the manpower demand and supply in the context of the IS industry. Findings – The simulation results showed an overall IS manpower shortage in the IS industry. Policy alternatives were proposed based on the simulation results. The simulation model was rerun to reflect the various alternatives to achieve a stable manpower balance between demand and supply. Originality/value – The research provides insights into the development of effective manpower planning at the industry level (macro level), and policies to increase its efficiency and effectiveness. The research model was developed and verified using SD. http://www.deepdyve.com/assets/images/DeepDyve-Logo-lg.png Industrial Management & Data Systems Emerald Publishing

A dynamic manpower forecasting model for the information security industry

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Publisher
Emerald Publishing
Copyright
Copyright © 2008 Emerald Group Publishing Limited. All rights reserved.
ISSN
0263-5577
DOI
10.1108/02635570810858778
Publisher site
See Article on Publisher Site

Abstract

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to develop an integrated model for manpower forecasting for the information security (IS) industry, one of the fastest growing IT‐related industries. The proposed model incorporates three critical factors (feedback structure, time lags, and a flexible saturation point) in a system dynamics (SD) simulation frame. Design/methodology/approach – A simulation model using SD is developed for a dynamic manpower forecasting by decomposing complex processes of manpower planning into a set of feedback loops with a causal‐loop diagram. Data gathered from a Korean Government agency were utilized in the simulation for forecasting the manpower demand and supply in the context of the IS industry. Findings – The simulation results showed an overall IS manpower shortage in the IS industry. Policy alternatives were proposed based on the simulation results. The simulation model was rerun to reflect the various alternatives to achieve a stable manpower balance between demand and supply. Originality/value – The research provides insights into the development of effective manpower planning at the industry level (macro level), and policies to increase its efficiency and effectiveness. The research model was developed and verified using SD.

Journal

Industrial Management & Data SystemsEmerald Publishing

Published: Mar 21, 2008

Keywords: Manpower planning; Systems analysis; Simulation; Information systems; South Korea

References