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A dynamic and adaptive scenario approach for formulating science & technology policy

A dynamic and adaptive scenario approach for formulating science & technology policy PurposeDynamic changes in the world bring challenges for making long-term future-oriented policy and strategy. A number of recent developments like drops in oil prices, increasing global conflicts, mass immigration and economic stagnation have had disruptive effects on long-term policies and strategies. The purpose of this paper is to provide a dynamic and adaptive Foresight approach as required by the fast-changing global landscape.Design/methodology/approachThe scenario approach presented in the paper aims to develop multiple time horizons by bringing together short-term forecasts and long-term exploratory and visionary scenarios. Each time horizon allows for re-considering and dynamically changing drivers and assumptions of scenarios and thus builds not a single linear, but multiple and dynamic pathways into the future. Following the presentation on the background and description of the methodology, the paper illustrates the proposed approach with a case study on science and technology (S&T) development in Russia.FindingsThe flexible scenario approach allows developing and strategies with similar adaptability and flexibility.Practical implicationsThe scenario approach presented in the paper may be applicable for Foresight exercises at all levels of governance, including national, international, regional and corporate.Originality/valueA novel scenario approach is presented for the formulation of S&T policy with an illustrative case study. http://www.deepdyve.com/assets/images/DeepDyve-Logo-lg.png foresight Emerald Publishing

A dynamic and adaptive scenario approach for formulating science & technology policy

foresight , Volume 19 (5): 18 – Sep 11, 2017

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Publisher
Emerald Publishing
Copyright
Copyright © Emerald Group Publishing Limited
ISSN
1463-6689
DOI
10.1108/FS-11-2016-0054
Publisher site
See Article on Publisher Site

Abstract

PurposeDynamic changes in the world bring challenges for making long-term future-oriented policy and strategy. A number of recent developments like drops in oil prices, increasing global conflicts, mass immigration and economic stagnation have had disruptive effects on long-term policies and strategies. The purpose of this paper is to provide a dynamic and adaptive Foresight approach as required by the fast-changing global landscape.Design/methodology/approachThe scenario approach presented in the paper aims to develop multiple time horizons by bringing together short-term forecasts and long-term exploratory and visionary scenarios. Each time horizon allows for re-considering and dynamically changing drivers and assumptions of scenarios and thus builds not a single linear, but multiple and dynamic pathways into the future. Following the presentation on the background and description of the methodology, the paper illustrates the proposed approach with a case study on science and technology (S&T) development in Russia.FindingsThe flexible scenario approach allows developing and strategies with similar adaptability and flexibility.Practical implicationsThe scenario approach presented in the paper may be applicable for Foresight exercises at all levels of governance, including national, international, regional and corporate.Originality/valueA novel scenario approach is presented for the formulation of S&T policy with an illustrative case study.

Journal

foresightEmerald Publishing

Published: Sep 11, 2017

References