This paper uses time series econometric techniques to model regional property rents in order to build a picture of the distinctiveness and commonality of the Scottish property sector. Data used comes from a series stretching from 1970‐1998 and allows Scotland’s market performance (in terms of rents) in each of the three main property sectors to be benchmarked against a selective comparison of other UK regions. In doing so, we pay particular attention to the statistical properties of the time series used, applying tests of data stationarity and cointegration to develop a reduced form model of rents comprising both demand and supply‐side variables. The paper develops a predictive approach to property rents based on the autoregressive moving average (ARMA) methodology. Initial within‐sample predictive power is reasonably high. The implications of our results for a better understanding of the Scottish property market, as well as the more general modelling, are sketched out.
Journal of Property Investment & Finance – Emerald Publishing
Published: Jun 1, 2000
Keywords: Property markets; Rent; Modelling