Validation of catchment models for predicting land-use and climate change impacts. 2. Case study for a Mediterranean catchment

Validation of catchment models for predicting land-use and climate change impacts. 2. Case study... Validation methods commonly used to test catchment models are not capable of demonstrating a model's fitness for making predictions for catchments where the catchment response is not known (including hypothetical catchments, and future conditions of existing catchments which are subject to land-use or climate change). This paper describes the first use of a new method of validation (Ewen and Parkin, 1996. J. Hydrol. , 175: 583–594) designed to address these types of application; the method involves making ‘blind’ predictions of selected hydrological responses which are considered important for a particular application. SHETRAN (a physically based, distributed catchment modelling system) is tested on a small Mediterranean catchment. The test involves quantification of the uncertainty in four predicted features of the catchment response (continuous hydrograph, peak discharge rates, monthly runoff, and total runoff), and comparison of observations with the predicted ranges for these features. The results of this test are considered encouraging. http://www.deepdyve.com/assets/images/DeepDyve-Logo-lg.png Journal of Hydrology Elsevier

Validation of catchment models for predicting land-use and climate change impacts. 2. Case study for a Mediterranean catchment

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Publisher
Elsevier
Copyright
Copyright © 1996 Elsevier Ltd
ISSN
0022-1694
eISSN
1879-2707
D.O.I.
10.1016/S0022-1694(96)80027-8
Publisher site
See Article on Publisher Site

Abstract

Validation methods commonly used to test catchment models are not capable of demonstrating a model's fitness for making predictions for catchments where the catchment response is not known (including hypothetical catchments, and future conditions of existing catchments which are subject to land-use or climate change). This paper describes the first use of a new method of validation (Ewen and Parkin, 1996. J. Hydrol. , 175: 583–594) designed to address these types of application; the method involves making ‘blind’ predictions of selected hydrological responses which are considered important for a particular application. SHETRAN (a physically based, distributed catchment modelling system) is tested on a small Mediterranean catchment. The test involves quantification of the uncertainty in four predicted features of the catchment response (continuous hydrograph, peak discharge rates, monthly runoff, and total runoff), and comparison of observations with the predicted ranges for these features. The results of this test are considered encouraging.

Journal

Journal of HydrologyElsevier

Published: Feb 1, 1996

References

  • Future of distributed modelling
    Beven, K.
  • Three-dimensional, transient, saturated-unsaturated flow in a groundwater basin
    Freeze, R.A.

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