The origins and evolution of scenario techniques in long range business planning

The origins and evolution of scenario techniques in long range business planning Scenario Planning has been around for more than 30 years and during this period a multitude of techniques and methodologies have developed, resulting in what has been described as a ‘methodological chaos’ which is unlikely to disappear in the near future (A. Martelli, Scenario building and scenario planning: state of the art and prospects of evolution, Futures Research Quarterly Summer (2001)). This is reflected in the fact that literature reveals an abundance of different and at times contradictory definitions, characteristics, principles and methodological ideas about scenarios. It has been suggested that a pressing need for the future of scenarios is amongst other things, to resolve the confusion over ‘the definitions and methods of scenarios’. This paper makes a beginning at this need by tracing the origins and growth of scenarios and the subsequent evolution of the various methodologies; a classification of the methodologies into three main schools of techniques is given and the salient features of these schools are compared and contrasted. http://www.deepdyve.com/assets/images/DeepDyve-Logo-lg.png Futures Elsevier

The origins and evolution of scenario techniques in long range business planning

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Publisher
Elsevier
Copyright
Copyright © 2005 Elsevier Ltd
ISSN
0016-3287
eISSN
1873-6378
D.O.I.
10.1016/j.futures.2005.01.003
Publisher site
See Article on Publisher Site

Abstract

Scenario Planning has been around for more than 30 years and during this period a multitude of techniques and methodologies have developed, resulting in what has been described as a ‘methodological chaos’ which is unlikely to disappear in the near future (A. Martelli, Scenario building and scenario planning: state of the art and prospects of evolution, Futures Research Quarterly Summer (2001)). This is reflected in the fact that literature reveals an abundance of different and at times contradictory definitions, characteristics, principles and methodological ideas about scenarios. It has been suggested that a pressing need for the future of scenarios is amongst other things, to resolve the confusion over ‘the definitions and methods of scenarios’. This paper makes a beginning at this need by tracing the origins and growth of scenarios and the subsequent evolution of the various methodologies; a classification of the methodologies into three main schools of techniques is given and the salient features of these schools are compared and contrasted.

Journal

FuturesElsevier

Published: Oct 1, 2005

References

  • Multiple scenario approach and strategic behaviour in European companies
    Malaska, P.
  • The future of scenarios: challenges and opportunities
    Millett, S.
  • A quiet revolution: opportunities for local futures in the UK
    Saunders, J.

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