Stock return predictability and model uncertainty

Stock return predictability and model uncertainty We use Bayesian model averaging to analyze the sample evidence on return predictability in the presence of model uncertainty. The analysis reveals in-sample and out-of-sample predictability, and shows that the out-of-sample performance of the Bayesian approach is superior to that of model selection criteria. We find that term and market premia are robust predictors. Moreover, small-cap value stocks appear more predictable than large-cap growth stocks. We also investigate the implications of model uncertainty from investment management perspectives. We show that model uncertainty is more important than estimation risk, and investors who discard model uncertainty face large utility losses. http://www.deepdyve.com/assets/images/DeepDyve-Logo-lg.png Journal of Financial Economics Elsevier

Stock return predictability and model uncertainty

Journal of Financial Economics, Volume 64 (3) – Jun 1, 2002

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Publisher
Elsevier
Copyright
Copyright © 2002 Elsevier Science B.V.
ISSN
0304-405x
DOI
10.1016/S0304-405X(02)00131-9
Publisher site
See Article on Publisher Site

Abstract

We use Bayesian model averaging to analyze the sample evidence on return predictability in the presence of model uncertainty. The analysis reveals in-sample and out-of-sample predictability, and shows that the out-of-sample performance of the Bayesian approach is superior to that of model selection criteria. We find that term and market premia are robust predictors. Moreover, small-cap value stocks appear more predictable than large-cap growth stocks. We also investigate the implications of model uncertainty from investment management perspectives. We show that model uncertainty is more important than estimation risk, and investors who discard model uncertainty face large utility losses.

Journal

Journal of Financial EconomicsElsevier

Published: Jun 1, 2002

References

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