The authors present a statistical procedure to estimate the probability distributions of storm characteristics. The approach uses recent advances in stochastic hydrological modeling. The temporal dynamics of rainfall are modeled via a reward alternating renewal process that describes wet and dry phases of storms. In particular, the wet phase is modeled as a rectangular pulse process with dependent random duration and intensity; the global dependence structure is described using multidimensional copulas. The marginal distributions are described by Generalized Pareto laws. The authors derive both the storm volume statistics and the rainfall volume distribution within a fixed temporal window preceding a storm. Based on these results, they calculate the antecedent moisture conditions. The paper includes a thorough discussion of the validity of the assumptions and approximations introduced, and an application to actual rainfall data. The models presented here have important implications for improved design procedures of water resources and hydrologic systems.
Advances in Water Resources – Elsevier
Published: Jun 1, 2006
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