Spatial heterogeneity is believed to play an important role in the persistence and dynamics of epidemics of childhood diseases because asynchrony between populations within different regions allows global persistence, even if the disease dies out locally. A simple multi-patch (metapopulation) model for spatial heterogeneity in epidemics is analysed and we examine conditions under which patches become synchronised. We show that the patches in non-seasonal deterministic models often oscillate in phase for all but the weakest between patch coupling. Synchronisation is also seen for stochastic models, although slightly stronger coupling is needed to overcome the random effects. We demonstrate that the inclusion of seasonal forcing in deterministic models can lead to the maintenance of phase differences between patches. Complex dynamic behaviour is observed in the seasonally forced spatial model, along with the coexistence of many different behaviours. Compared to the non-spatial model, chaotic solutions are observed for weaker seasonal forcing; these solutions have a more realistic minimum number of infectives.
Journal of Theoretical Biology – Elsevier
Published: Mar 7, 1996
It’s your single place to instantly
discover and read the research
that matters to you.
Enjoy affordable access to
over 18 million articles from more than
15,000 peer-reviewed journals.
All for just $49/month
Query the DeepDyve database, plus search all of PubMed and Google Scholar seamlessly
Save any article or search result from DeepDyve, PubMed, and Google Scholar... all in one place.
Get unlimited, online access to over 18 million full-text articles from more than 15,000 scientific journals.
Read from thousands of the leading scholarly journals from SpringerNature, Elsevier, Wiley-Blackwell, Oxford University Press and more.
All the latest content is available, no embargo periods.
“Hi guys, I cannot tell you how much I love this resource. Incredible. I really believe you've hit the nail on the head with this site in regards to solving the research-purchase issue.”Daniel C.
“Whoa! It’s like Spotify but for academic articles.”@Phil_Robichaud
“I must say, @deepdyve is a fabulous solution to the independent researcher's problem of #access to #information.”@deepthiw
“My last article couldn't be possible without the platform @deepdyve that makes journal papers cheaper.”@JoseServera