Sensitivity of a forest ecosystem model to climate parametrization schemes

Sensitivity of a forest ecosystem model to climate parametrization schemes An analysis of the climate parametrization scheme adopted by conventional forest gap models revealed that most models assume a constant climate and are difficult to calibrate consistently. Tree growth showed unrealistically sensitive threshold effects along ecological gradients of temperature and precipitation. A new parametrization was compared with its predecessors in terms of the model's capability to predict realistic steady state species compositions at three test sites in the Alps. Applying the new model variant ForClim to some climate-change scenarios suggests that forest gap models are highly sensitive to climate pametrizations, regardless of the realism with which they simulate forests for the current climate. Moreover, the precision of climate scenarios based on General Circulation Models (GCM), for example, falls short of ForClim 's sensitivity. Climate-dependent processes in forest gap models should be rehearsed before these models are used in impact studies of climatic change. http://www.deepdyve.com/assets/images/DeepDyve-Logo-lg.png Environmental Pollution Elsevier

Sensitivity of a forest ecosystem model to climate parametrization schemes

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Abstract

An analysis of the climate parametrization scheme adopted by conventional forest gap models revealed that most models assume a constant climate and are difficult to calibrate consistently. Tree growth showed unrealistically sensitive threshold effects along ecological gradients of temperature and precipitation. A new parametrization was compared with its predecessors in terms of the model's capability to predict realistic steady state species compositions at three test sites in the Alps. Applying the new model variant ForClim to some climate-change scenarios suggests that forest gap models are highly sensitive to climate pametrizations, regardless of the realism with which they simulate forests for the current climate. Moreover, the precision of climate scenarios based on General Circulation Models (GCM), for example, falls short of ForClim 's sensitivity. Climate-dependent processes in forest gap models should be rehearsed before these models are used in impact studies of climatic change.

Journal

Environmental PollutionElsevier

Published: Jan 1, 1995

References

  • Approaches to the simulation of regional climate change: A review
    Giorgi, F.; Mearns, L.O.
  • Transient response of forests to CO 2 -induced climate change: Simulation modelling experiments in eastern North America
    Solomon, A.M.

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