Sensitivity analysis for models of population viability

Sensitivity analysis for models of population viability A method of sensitivity analysis for population viability models is presented that uses logistic regression to evaluate the importance of model parameters that influence the risks of extinction. This approach is used to evaluate the importance of fecundity parameters and the initial number of non-breeding birds in a stochastic stage-structured model of helmeted honeyeater Lichenostomus melanops cassidix population dynamics. The regression analysis indicates which model parameters have the greatest impact on the risk of population decline. The results demonstrate that a simple expression containing the parameters of the model can encapsulate predictions of risk. This technique is proposed as an efficient alternative method of sensitivity analysis for population viability models. Of four fecundity parameters, the mean fecundity of intact pairs had the greatest influence on the risks faced by the helmeted honeyeater population. Mean fecundity of split pairs and the sex ratio of offspring were also important parameters. Over the range of parameters considered in this paper, environmental variation in fecundity and the initial number of non-breeding birds had little influence on the risks of decline. The importance of interactions between parameters was analysed. http://www.deepdyve.com/assets/images/DeepDyve-Logo-lg.png Biological Conservation Elsevier

Sensitivity analysis for models of population viability

Biological Conservation, Volume 73 (2) – Jan 1, 1995

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Publisher
Elsevier
Copyright
Copyright © 1995 Elsevier Ltd
ISSN
0006-3207
D.O.I.
10.1016/0006-3207(95)90029-2
Publisher site
See Article on Publisher Site

Abstract

A method of sensitivity analysis for population viability models is presented that uses logistic regression to evaluate the importance of model parameters that influence the risks of extinction. This approach is used to evaluate the importance of fecundity parameters and the initial number of non-breeding birds in a stochastic stage-structured model of helmeted honeyeater Lichenostomus melanops cassidix population dynamics. The regression analysis indicates which model parameters have the greatest impact on the risk of population decline. The results demonstrate that a simple expression containing the parameters of the model can encapsulate predictions of risk. This technique is proposed as an efficient alternative method of sensitivity analysis for population viability models. Of four fecundity parameters, the mean fecundity of intact pairs had the greatest influence on the risks faced by the helmeted honeyeater population. Mean fecundity of split pairs and the sex ratio of offspring were also important parameters. Over the range of parameters considered in this paper, environmental variation in fecundity and the initial number of non-breeding birds had little influence on the risks of decline. The importance of interactions between parameters was analysed.

Journal

Biological ConservationElsevier

Published: Jan 1, 1995

References

  • Determining minimum habitat areas and habitat corridors for cougars
    Beier, P.
  • Population viability analysis
    Boyce, M.S.
  • Quasiextinction probabilities as a measure of impact on population growth
    Ginzburg, L.R.; Slobodkin, L.B.; Johnson, K.; Bindman, A.G.
  • Population viability analysis for a small population of red-cockaded woodpeckers and an evaluation of enhancement strategies
    Haig, S.M.; Belthoff, J.R.; Allen, D.H.
  • The contribution of population and community biology to conservation science
    Simberloff, D.

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