Selection bias in build-operate-transfer transportation project appraisals

Selection bias in build-operate-transfer transportation project appraisals 1 Introduction</h5> The Build-Operate-Transfer (BOT) scheme is increasingly used as an innovative way to finance the construction of major public transportation infrastructure projects in many developing countries, and even in some developed countries. In a BOT project bidding process, each consultant (or consortium) develops a proposed plan that includes factors related to highway pricing and capacity ( Yang and Meng, 2000; Subprasom and Chen, 2007 ). Bidding consortiums design their pricing and capacity plans to maximize the profit from the project and the government then evaluates the social welfare benefits of the proposed plans. Generally, both the investor’s profits and the social welfare benefits of the project are dependent on the estimated forecast of the traffic demand of the project in the target year and the estimate of the construction and operation costs of the project. Therefore, the accuracy of the traffic forecasts directly affects the efficacy of the BOT decision-making process (e.g., the ranking of project tenderers and the selection of a successful tenderer).</P>Beyond the significance of the forecast accuracy in the BOT project bidding process, traffic (or travel demand) forecasting is also a fundamental step in the planning and management of transportation systems. The resulting estimates http://www.deepdyve.com/assets/images/DeepDyve-Logo-lg.png Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice Elsevier

Selection bias in build-operate-transfer transportation project appraisals

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Publisher
Elsevier
Copyright
Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd
ISSN
0965-8564
eISSN
1879-2375
D.O.I.
10.1016/j.tra.2015.03.026
Publisher site
See Article on Publisher Site

Abstract

1 Introduction</h5> The Build-Operate-Transfer (BOT) scheme is increasingly used as an innovative way to finance the construction of major public transportation infrastructure projects in many developing countries, and even in some developed countries. In a BOT project bidding process, each consultant (or consortium) develops a proposed plan that includes factors related to highway pricing and capacity ( Yang and Meng, 2000; Subprasom and Chen, 2007 ). Bidding consortiums design their pricing and capacity plans to maximize the profit from the project and the government then evaluates the social welfare benefits of the proposed plans. Generally, both the investor’s profits and the social welfare benefits of the project are dependent on the estimated forecast of the traffic demand of the project in the target year and the estimate of the construction and operation costs of the project. Therefore, the accuracy of the traffic forecasts directly affects the efficacy of the BOT decision-making process (e.g., the ranking of project tenderers and the selection of a successful tenderer).</P>Beyond the significance of the forecast accuracy in the BOT project bidding process, traffic (or travel demand) forecasting is also a fundamental step in the planning and management of transportation systems. The resulting estimates

Journal

Transportation Research Part A: Policy and PracticeElsevier

Published: May 1, 2015

References

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