Risk identification and analysis for new energy power system in China based on D numbers and decision-making trial and evaluation laboratory (DEMATEL)

Risk identification and analysis for new energy power system in China based on D numbers and... As more new energy power is integrated into the power grid in a large scale, the security problem of the new energy power system (NEPS) has been paid more and more attention in China. Therefore, in order to identify the risk elements of NEPS in China and analyze their internal influence relations, this paper proposes a risk identification and analysis model of NEPS based on D numbers theory and decision-making trial and evaluation laboratory (DEMATEL) method. First, a risk element set is established including new energy resource risk, technical risk, demand side risk, grid side risk and human factor, and Crombach α reliability analysis is introduced to verify the rationality of this set. Then, D numbers theory is employed to integrate the expert evaluation information and the direct relation matrix is obtained. Next, based on DEMATEL method, the cause-effect relations and significance degree of risk elements are analyzed. The results indicate that C10, C15 and C14 are in the top three according to prominence values which are 6.455, 6.186, 5.854 respectively. Meanwhile 18 criteria are divided into 8 causal factors and 10 effect factors which are also analyzed by θ in total relation matrix. Finally, according the risk analysis results, managerial and policy implications are explored. This study concluded that the proposed method provides a strong basis for future academic research. http://www.deepdyve.com/assets/images/DeepDyve-Logo-lg.png Journal of Cleaner Production Elsevier

Risk identification and analysis for new energy power system in China based on D numbers and decision-making trial and evaluation laboratory (DEMATEL)

Loading next page...
 
/lp/elsevier/risk-identification-and-analysis-for-new-energy-power-system-in-china-tl1oa0TS3i
Publisher
Elsevier
Copyright
Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd
ISSN
0959-6526
D.O.I.
10.1016/j.jclepro.2018.01.153
Publisher site
See Article on Publisher Site

Abstract

As more new energy power is integrated into the power grid in a large scale, the security problem of the new energy power system (NEPS) has been paid more and more attention in China. Therefore, in order to identify the risk elements of NEPS in China and analyze their internal influence relations, this paper proposes a risk identification and analysis model of NEPS based on D numbers theory and decision-making trial and evaluation laboratory (DEMATEL) method. First, a risk element set is established including new energy resource risk, technical risk, demand side risk, grid side risk and human factor, and Crombach α reliability analysis is introduced to verify the rationality of this set. Then, D numbers theory is employed to integrate the expert evaluation information and the direct relation matrix is obtained. Next, based on DEMATEL method, the cause-effect relations and significance degree of risk elements are analyzed. The results indicate that C10, C15 and C14 are in the top three according to prominence values which are 6.455, 6.186, 5.854 respectively. Meanwhile 18 criteria are divided into 8 causal factors and 10 effect factors which are also analyzed by θ in total relation matrix. Finally, according the risk analysis results, managerial and policy implications are explored. This study concluded that the proposed method provides a strong basis for future academic research.

Journal

Journal of Cleaner ProductionElsevier

Published: Apr 10, 2018

References

You’re reading a free preview. Subscribe to read the entire article.


DeepDyve is your
personal research library

It’s your single place to instantly
discover and read the research
that matters to you.

Enjoy affordable access to
over 12 million articles from more than
10,000 peer-reviewed journals.

All for just $49/month

Explore the DeepDyve Library

Unlimited reading

Read as many articles as you need. Full articles with original layout, charts and figures. Read online, from anywhere.

Stay up to date

Keep up with your field with Personalized Recommendations and Follow Journals to get automatic updates.

Organize your research

It’s easy to organize your research with our built-in tools.

Your journals are on DeepDyve

Read from thousands of the leading scholarly journals from SpringerNature, Elsevier, Wiley-Blackwell, Oxford University Press and more.

All the latest content is available, no embargo periods.

See the journals in your area

DeepDyve Freelancer

DeepDyve Pro

Price
FREE
$49/month

$360/year
Save searches from
Google Scholar,
PubMed
Create lists to
organize your research
Export lists, citations
Read DeepDyve articles
Abstract access only
Unlimited access to over
18 million full-text articles
Print
20 pages/month
PDF Discount
20% off