Probabilistic forecasting for extreme NO2 pollution episodes

Probabilistic forecasting for extreme NO2 pollution episodes In this study, we investigate the convenience of quantile regression to predict extreme concentrations of NO2. Contrarily to the usual point-forecasting, where a single value is forecast for each horizon, probabilistic forecasting through quantile regression allows for the prediction of the full probability distribution, which in turn allows to build models specifically fit for the tails of this distribution.Using data from the city of Madrid, including NO2 concentrations as well as meteorological measures, we build models that predict extreme NO2 concentrations, outperforming point-forecasting alternatives, and we prove that the predictions are accurate, reliable and sharp. Besides, we study the relative importance of the independent variables involved, and show how the important variables for the median quantile are different than those important for the upper quantiles. Furthermore, we present a method to compute the probability of exceedance of thresholds, which is a simple and comprehensible manner to present probabilistic forecasts maximizing their usefulness. http://www.deepdyve.com/assets/images/DeepDyve-Logo-lg.png Environmental Pollution Elsevier

Probabilistic forecasting for extreme NO2 pollution episodes

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Publisher
Elsevier
Copyright
Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd
ISSN
0269-7491
D.O.I.
10.1016/j.envpol.2017.05.079
Publisher site
See Article on Publisher Site

Abstract

In this study, we investigate the convenience of quantile regression to predict extreme concentrations of NO2. Contrarily to the usual point-forecasting, where a single value is forecast for each horizon, probabilistic forecasting through quantile regression allows for the prediction of the full probability distribution, which in turn allows to build models specifically fit for the tails of this distribution.Using data from the city of Madrid, including NO2 concentrations as well as meteorological measures, we build models that predict extreme NO2 concentrations, outperforming point-forecasting alternatives, and we prove that the predictions are accurate, reliable and sharp. Besides, we study the relative importance of the independent variables involved, and show how the important variables for the median quantile are different than those important for the upper quantiles. Furthermore, we present a method to compute the probability of exceedance of thresholds, which is a simple and comprehensible manner to present probabilistic forecasts maximizing their usefulness.

Journal

Environmental PollutionElsevier

Published: Oct 1, 2017

References

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