<h5>Purpose/Objective(s)</h5> In order to determine tolerance doses for cardiac toxicity during radiation therapy for esophageal cancer, the Lyman Kutcher Burman (LKB) model of Normal Tissue Complication Probability (NTCP) was fit to clinical data.</P><h5>Materials/Methods</h5> Toxicity data from 127 patients treated between June 2002 and April 2011 was were used to derive LKB parameters n, m, and TD 50 . Two models were fit to the data: 1) A model for all patients described by a single TD 50 value for then entire patient population, and 2) A subset model whereby separate TD 50 values were allowed for male and female patients. Fitting was performed using maximum likelihood estimation. 68% confidence intervals for the NTCP curves were estimated using the profile likelihood method. The significance of allowing subset-specific TD 50 values was evaluated through a likelihood ratio test.</P><h5>Results</h5> The LKB parameters for cardiac toxicity in the entire population were n = 15.9 (0.37 - 139.5), m = 0.64 (0.35 - 1.09) and TD 50 = 41.4Gy (24.3 - 54.7). The strange n value suggests that allowing only a single TD 50 value in the LKB fit for this these data results in a very broad set of possible solutions, and
International Journal of Radiation Oncology Biology Physics – Elsevier
Published: Nov 1, 2012
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