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Abstract: This paper describes the practical application of causal extrapolation of sequences for the purpose of forecasting . The methods and proofs have been applied to simulations to measure ...
and Statman (1998), Amromin and Sharpe (2013), and Greenwood and Shleifer (2014) find evidence of extrapolation bias in survey-based forecasts of future returns. Similarly, Tversky and Kahneman (1974 ...
a set of classification trees to illustrate the sequence of consumers’ decision-making, and, finally, we make use of causal forests (a causal machine learning technique) to estimate the existence ...
latent factors depends on the kind of application desired. It appears reasonable to search in a range from three to five factors when designing a term structure model whose goals include forecasting yields ...
Abstract Using cross-national time-series data in sequences of Granger causality tests, this study analyzed the democratic effects of media technologies with a sample of 122 countries. This process ...
it produces forecasts . The vast majority of empirical models in economics can be very successful at identifying causal relations or at fitting behaviour, but they are never used to provide unconditional ...
in learning is important for theory and empirical analysis. This article examines whether owning a good has a causal effect on how people respond to information about it. In a series of experimental studies, we ...
for chaos in empirical data (Hastings et al., 1993; Ellner and Turchin, 1995). Early applications of nonlinear forecasting in ecology found these techniques to be especially useful for understanding ...
recessions. A comparison with professional forecasters and historical data reveals that the beliefs wedge reflects excessive pessimism on the part of low-SES individuals. SES-driven expectations help explain ...
that is leveled at findings linking telomere parameters to environmental factors and clinical manifestations of aging-related disorders in humans is that these associations do not show evidence of causality ...
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