•We combined powerful statistical tools and physically-based models to analyze and predict key processes of phytoplankton dynamics in a eutrophic shallow lake destined for drinking water.•An 11-year time series of meteorological, hydrological, physicochemical and biological variables, continuously measured by water managers was considered.•The models were able to explain a significant part of the variability of phytoplankton biomass and composition and presented acceptable predictive accuracy.•In the current water quality situation, predictive models are crucial to anticipate non-desirable water quality conditions.
Ecological Modelling – Elsevier
Published: Sep 24, 2017
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