•Systematic errors in observations or model simulations have traditionally been shown to degrade data assimilation quality.•We investigate this issue in the context of data assimilation and prediction in catchments with changing system properties (i.e. land cover conditions).•Experiments on a range of catchments show that the impacts of systematic errors due to unknown land cover changes are dependent on the inherent model prediction uncertainty that persists even in pre-change conditions.•Systematic errors introduced by unresolved dynamic system properties do not always negatively impact assimilation/forecast quality.
Advances in Water Resources – Elsevier
Published: Mar 1, 2018
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