Importance of parametric uncertainty in predicting probability distributions for burst wait-times in fissile systems

Importance of parametric uncertainty in predicting probability distributions for burst wait-times... •Gamma distribution predicts wait-time probability distribution in milliseconds.•Accuracy is influenced by intrinsic neutron source and prompt neutron lifetime.•Rapid prediction of wait-time permits uncertainty quantification by Monte Carlo.•Uncertainty quantification method is fast and adaptable to a range of scenarios.•Accelerated solution of the saddlepoint method demonstrated using Newton-Raphson. http://www.deepdyve.com/assets/images/DeepDyve-Logo-lg.png Annals of Nuclear Energy Elsevier

Importance of parametric uncertainty in predicting probability distributions for burst wait-times in fissile systems

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Publisher
Elsevier
Copyright
Copyright © 2018 The Author(s)
ISSN
0306-4549
eISSN
1873-2100
D.O.I.
10.1016/j.anucene.2018.04.026
Publisher site
See Article on Publisher Site

Abstract

•Gamma distribution predicts wait-time probability distribution in milliseconds.•Accuracy is influenced by intrinsic neutron source and prompt neutron lifetime.•Rapid prediction of wait-time permits uncertainty quantification by Monte Carlo.•Uncertainty quantification method is fast and adaptable to a range of scenarios.•Accelerated solution of the saddlepoint method demonstrated using Newton-Raphson.

Journal

Annals of Nuclear EnergyElsevier

Published: Sep 1, 2018

References

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