How to address model uncertainty in the escalation of domino effects?

How to address model uncertainty in the escalation of domino effects? Modeling potential domino scenarios in process plants includes the prediction of the most probable sequence of events and the calculation of respective probabilities, so-called escalation probabilities, so that appropriate prevention and mitigation safety measures can be devised. Domino effect modeling, however, is very challenging mainly due to uncertainties involved in estimation of escalation probabilities (parameter uncertainty) and prediction of the sequence of events during a domino effect (model uncertainty). In the present study, a methodology based on dynamic Bayesian network is developed for identification of the most likely sequence of events in domino scenarios while accounting for model uncertainty. Verifying the accuracy of the methodology based on a comparison with previous studies, the methodology is applied to model single-primary-event and multiple-primary-event domino scenarios in process plants. http://www.deepdyve.com/assets/images/DeepDyve-Logo-lg.png Journal of Loss Prevention in the Process Industries Elsevier

How to address model uncertainty in the escalation of domino effects?

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Publisher
Elsevier
Copyright
Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd
ISSN
0950-4230
eISSN
1873-3352
D.O.I.
10.1016/j.jlp.2018.03.001
Publisher site
See Article on Publisher Site

Abstract

Modeling potential domino scenarios in process plants includes the prediction of the most probable sequence of events and the calculation of respective probabilities, so-called escalation probabilities, so that appropriate prevention and mitigation safety measures can be devised. Domino effect modeling, however, is very challenging mainly due to uncertainties involved in estimation of escalation probabilities (parameter uncertainty) and prediction of the sequence of events during a domino effect (model uncertainty). In the present study, a methodology based on dynamic Bayesian network is developed for identification of the most likely sequence of events in domino scenarios while accounting for model uncertainty. Verifying the accuracy of the methodology based on a comparison with previous studies, the methodology is applied to model single-primary-event and multiple-primary-event domino scenarios in process plants.

Journal

Journal of Loss Prevention in the Process IndustriesElsevier

Published: Jul 1, 2018

References

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