•First non-energy intensive bottom-up analysis for heat recovery with heat pump.•Decrease of 12% and 9% of energy consumption and emissions in 2020 compared to 1990.•Almost 40% additional energy savings could be achieved with incentive policies.•A drop of 15% of the gas price could stop the heat pump deployment.•With higher gas prices we could observe heat pump deployment or inter-energy substitutions.
Applied Energy – Elsevier
Published: Oct 15, 2015
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