•Model used to projected growth of Ciguatera-associated dinoflagellates in Caribbean.•Gambierdiscus growth projected from SST, bottom temperature, experimental growth data.•Growth projections account for Ciguatera incidence in greater Caribbean.•Model is first step in development of forecast tool for Ciguatera risk assessment.
Ecological Modelling – Elsevier
Published: Sep 24, 2017
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