Fear of foresight: Knowledge and ignorance in organizational foresight

Fear of foresight: Knowledge and ignorance in organizational foresight We discuss the changes occurring in the field of organizational foresight. The analysis results from viewing foresight from two different perspectives: as centered on the future or on the present; as macroscopic analysis or microscopic practice. The combination of these factors results in four different modes of organizational foresight: strategic planning, visioning, scenario thinking and planned emergence. These different perspectives are examined. We contribute to the literature by presenting foresight as a complex process, amenable to different understandings. Foresight is often portrayed as a technical and analytic process. We discuss it as a human process permeated by a dialectic between the need to know and the fear of knowing. http://www.deepdyve.com/assets/images/DeepDyve-Logo-lg.png Futures Elsevier

Fear of foresight: Knowledge and ignorance in organizational foresight

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Publisher
Elsevier
Copyright
Copyright © 2006 Elsevier Ltd
ISSN
0016-3287
eISSN
1873-6378
D.O.I.
10.1016/j.futures.2005.12.015
Publisher site
See Article on Publisher Site

Abstract

We discuss the changes occurring in the field of organizational foresight. The analysis results from viewing foresight from two different perspectives: as centered on the future or on the present; as macroscopic analysis or microscopic practice. The combination of these factors results in four different modes of organizational foresight: strategic planning, visioning, scenario thinking and planned emergence. These different perspectives are examined. We contribute to the literature by presenting foresight as a complex process, amenable to different understandings. Foresight is often portrayed as a technical and analytic process. We discuss it as a human process permeated by a dialectic between the need to know and the fear of knowing.

Journal

FuturesElsevier

Published: Oct 1, 2006

References

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