In academic discussions and in public debate, economic growth is commonly presumed to be exponential. Economic theories model growth in an exponential manner and central policy institutions regard growth rates of 2–3% to be normal, also implying growth to be exponential. In this paper we investigate empirically whether economic growth is indeed exponential by estimating autoregressive integrated moving average time series models based on gross domestic product data for 18 mature economies from 1960 to 2013. Our findings cast doubts on whether these commonly discussed economic growth paths reflect the economic reality: only two out of 18 mature countries depict exponential growth rates above these levels. Five have lower exponential growth and the development of eleven countries exhibit rather linear growth. Additionally, we show that prominent theories of economic growth assume growth to be exponential and that a more heterogeneous set of theories is needed to explain different patterns of growth across time and space.
Ecological Economics – Elsevier
Published: May 1, 2018
It’s your single place to instantly
discover and read the research
that matters to you.
Enjoy affordable access to
over 18 million articles from more than
15,000 peer-reviewed journals.
All for just $49/month
Query the DeepDyve database, plus search all of PubMed and Google Scholar seamlessly
Save any article or search result from DeepDyve, PubMed, and Google Scholar... all in one place.
Get unlimited, online access to over 18 million full-text articles from more than 15,000 scientific journals.
Read from thousands of the leading scholarly journals from SpringerNature, Elsevier, Wiley-Blackwell, Oxford University Press and more.
All the latest content is available, no embargo periods.
“Hi guys, I cannot tell you how much I love this resource. Incredible. I really believe you've hit the nail on the head with this site in regards to solving the research-purchase issue.”Daniel C.
“Whoa! It’s like Spotify but for academic articles.”@Phil_Robichaud
“I must say, @deepdyve is a fabulous solution to the independent researcher's problem of #access to #information.”@deepthiw
“My last article couldn't be possible without the platform @deepdyve that makes journal papers cheaper.”@JoseServera