This paper presents a novel method to analyse policy performance, using the example of legislation in the UK to require domestic boilers fitted since 1 April 2005 to be condensing. A technological uptake model based on the logistic equation is combined with four physical and economic models; Bayesian techniques are used for data analysis. Projections of energy savings are presented and the impact of different policy implementation dates investigated.Boiler efficiency is estimated to improve by a factor of 1.25±0.15 on replacing a conventional with a condensing boiler. Estimated savings of the policy are 176,000−127,000+86,000GWh (or 32−23+16MTons of CO2e) between introduction in 2005 and 2013. Total estimated savings by 2050 of introducing the legislation in 2005 are 2,000,000−1,500,000+1,000,000GWh (or 368−276+184MTons of CO2e), approximately 5.6 times the average annual domestic UK emissions from domestic gas use of approximately 66±5MTons of CO2e.
Energy Policy – Elsevier
Published: Nov 1, 2015
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