Determining the impact of regulatory policy on UK gas use using Bayesian analysis on publicly available data

Determining the impact of regulatory policy on UK gas use using Bayesian analysis on publicly... This paper presents a novel method to analyse policy performance, using the example of legislation in the UK to require domestic boilers fitted since 1 April 2005 to be condensing. A technological uptake model based on the logistic equation is combined with four physical and economic models; Bayesian techniques are used for data analysis. Projections of energy savings are presented and the impact of different policy implementation dates investigated.Boiler efficiency is estimated to improve by a factor of 1.25±0.15 on replacing a conventional with a condensing boiler. Estimated savings of the policy are 176,000−127,000+86,000GWh (or 32−23+16MTons of CO2e) between introduction in 2005 and 2013. Total estimated savings by 2050 of introducing the legislation in 2005 are 2,000,000−1,500,000+1,000,000GWh (or 368−276+184MTons of CO2e), approximately 5.6 times the average annual domestic UK emissions from domestic gas use of approximately 66±5MTons of CO2e. http://www.deepdyve.com/assets/images/DeepDyve-Logo-lg.png Energy Policy Elsevier

Determining the impact of regulatory policy on UK gas use using Bayesian analysis on publicly available data

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Publisher
Elsevier
Copyright
Copyright © 2015 The Authors
ISSN
0301-4215
D.O.I.
10.1016/j.enpol.2015.08.020
Publisher site
See Article on Publisher Site

Abstract

This paper presents a novel method to analyse policy performance, using the example of legislation in the UK to require domestic boilers fitted since 1 April 2005 to be condensing. A technological uptake model based on the logistic equation is combined with four physical and economic models; Bayesian techniques are used for data analysis. Projections of energy savings are presented and the impact of different policy implementation dates investigated.Boiler efficiency is estimated to improve by a factor of 1.25±0.15 on replacing a conventional with a condensing boiler. Estimated savings of the policy are 176,000−127,000+86,000GWh (or 32−23+16MTons of CO2e) between introduction in 2005 and 2013. Total estimated savings by 2050 of introducing the legislation in 2005 are 2,000,000−1,500,000+1,000,000GWh (or 368−276+184MTons of CO2e), approximately 5.6 times the average annual domestic UK emissions from domestic gas use of approximately 66±5MTons of CO2e.

Journal

Energy PolicyElsevier

Published: Nov 1, 2015

References

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