Demographic change in the former Soviet Union during the transition period

Demographic change in the former Soviet Union during the transition period This paper examines patterns of mortality and other demographic changes across the former Soviet Union. Using regional data from the early 1990s, a simultaneous equations model of fertility, marriage, divorce, infant mortality and abortion is estimated as a function of economic and social variables. The paper then looks at determinants of life expectancy and specific causes of death. Demographic scenarios are then forecast on the basis of specific economic environments; these forecasts in turn are used to forecast life expectancies in the coming decades. In plausible environments, there is little reason to anticipate a rapid recovery in male or female life expectancies, while further declines in fertility appear imminent. http://www.deepdyve.com/assets/images/DeepDyve-Logo-lg.png World Development Elsevier

Demographic change in the former Soviet Union during the transition period

World Development, Volume 26 (11) – Nov 1, 1998

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Publisher
Elsevier
Copyright
Copyright © 1998 Elsevier Ltd
ISSN
0305-750X
eISSN
1873-5991
D.O.I.
10.1016/S0305-750X(98)00113-2
Publisher site
See Article on Publisher Site

Abstract

This paper examines patterns of mortality and other demographic changes across the former Soviet Union. Using regional data from the early 1990s, a simultaneous equations model of fertility, marriage, divorce, infant mortality and abortion is estimated as a function of economic and social variables. The paper then looks at determinants of life expectancy and specific causes of death. Demographic scenarios are then forecast on the basis of specific economic environments; these forecasts in turn are used to forecast life expectancies in the coming decades. In plausible environments, there is little reason to anticipate a rapid recovery in male or female life expectancies, while further declines in fertility appear imminent.

Journal

World DevelopmentElsevier

Published: Nov 1, 1998

References

  • Population of Russia: what can we expect in the future?
    Andreev, E.; Scherbov, S.; Willekens, F.
  • Maternal care vs economic wealth and the health of newborns: Bishkek, Kyrgyz Republic and Kansas City, USA
    Becker, C.M.; Bibosunova, D.I.; Holmes, G.E.; Ibragimova, M.M.
  • Market reform and mortality in transition economies
    Brainerd, E.
  • Causes of the Russian mortality: evidence and interpretations
    Shkolnikov, V.M.; Cornia, G.A.; Leon, D.A.; Meslé, F.

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