A spatial explicit allocation procedure for modelling the pattern of land use change based upon actual land use

A spatial explicit allocation procedure for modelling the pattern of land use change based upon... Modelling of land use changes as a function of its biophysical and socio-economic driving forces provides insights into the extent and location of land use changes and its effects. The CLUE modelling framework is a methodology to model near future land use changes based upon actual and past land use conditions. This paper describes how changes in land use are allocated in the model. A statistical analysis of the quantitative relationships between the actual land use distribution and (potential) driving forces or proxies of these forces underlies the allocation procedure. Based upon thus derived multiple regression equations, areas with potential for increase or decrease in cover percentage of a certain land use type are identified. Actual allocation is modified by autonomous developments and competition between land use types. A multi-scale approach is followed to account for the scale dependencies of driving factors of land use change. This approach provides a balance between bottom-up effects as result of local conditions and top-down effects as result of changes at national and regional scales. The modelling approach is illustrated with examples of scenario simulations of land use change in Ecuador. http://www.deepdyve.com/assets/images/DeepDyve-Logo-lg.png Ecological Modelling Elsevier

A spatial explicit allocation procedure for modelling the pattern of land use change based upon actual land use

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Publisher
Elsevier
Copyright
Copyright © 1998 Elsevier Science B.V.
ISSN
0304-3800
eISSN
1872-7026
DOI
10.1016/S0304-3800(98)00156-2
Publisher site
See Article on Publisher Site

Abstract

Modelling of land use changes as a function of its biophysical and socio-economic driving forces provides insights into the extent and location of land use changes and its effects. The CLUE modelling framework is a methodology to model near future land use changes based upon actual and past land use conditions. This paper describes how changes in land use are allocated in the model. A statistical analysis of the quantitative relationships between the actual land use distribution and (potential) driving forces or proxies of these forces underlies the allocation procedure. Based upon thus derived multiple regression equations, areas with potential for increase or decrease in cover percentage of a certain land use type are identified. Actual allocation is modified by autonomous developments and competition between land use types. A multi-scale approach is followed to account for the scale dependencies of driving factors of land use change. This approach provides a balance between bottom-up effects as result of local conditions and top-down effects as result of changes at national and regional scales. The modelling approach is illustrated with examples of scenario simulations of land use change in Ecuador.

Journal

Ecological Modelling – Elsevier

Published: Mar 1, 1999

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