A metapopulation approach to predict species range shifts under different climate change and landscape connectivity scenarios

A metapopulation approach to predict species range shifts under different climate change and... •We propose a method to combine metapopulation and ecological niche models.•Local extinction and colonization events are simulated using the incidence function model.•Species range distributions are forecast for different landscape connectivity scenarios.•Future climatic suitability is estimated with ecological niche models.•Combining dispersal kernels and climatic suitability improves range shift predictions. http://www.deepdyve.com/assets/images/DeepDyve-Logo-lg.png Ecological Modelling Elsevier

A metapopulation approach to predict species range shifts under different climate change and landscape connectivity scenarios

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Publisher
Elsevier
Copyright
Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V.
ISSN
0304-3800
eISSN
1872-7026
D.O.I.
10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2017.06.013
Publisher site
See Article on Publisher Site

Abstract

•We propose a method to combine metapopulation and ecological niche models.•Local extinction and colonization events are simulated using the incidence function model.•Species range distributions are forecast for different landscape connectivity scenarios.•Future climatic suitability is estimated with ecological niche models.•Combining dispersal kernels and climatic suitability improves range shift predictions.

Journal

Ecological ModellingElsevier

Published: Sep 10, 2017

References

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