Does including physiology improve species distribution model predictions of responses to recent climate change?

Does including physiology improve species distribution model predictions of responses to recent... Thermal constraints on development are often invoked to predict insect distributions. These constraints tend to be characterized in species distribution models (SDMs) by calculating development time based on a constant lower development temperature (LDT). Here, we assessed whether species-specific estimates of LDT based on laboratory experiments can improve the ability of SDMs to predict the distribution shifts of six U.K. butterflies in response to recent climate warming. We find that species-specific and constant (5°C) LDT degree-day models perform similarly at predicting distributions during the period of 1970–1982. However, when the models for the 1970–1982 period are projected to predict distributions in 1995–1999 and 2000–2004, species-specific LDT degree-day models modestly outperform constant LDT degree-day models. Our results suggest that, while including species-specific physiology in correlative models may enhance predictions of species' distribution responses to climate change, more detailed models may be needed to adequately account for interspecific physiological differences. http://www.deepdyve.com/assets/images/DeepDyve-Logo-lg.png Ecology Ecological Society of America

Does including physiology improve species distribution model predictions of responses to recent climate change?

Loading next page...
 
/lp/ecological-society-of-america/does-including-physiology-improve-species-distribution-model-WM4MYtRD0C
Publisher
Ecological Society of America
Copyright
Copyright © 2011 by the Ecological Society of America
Subject
Reports
ISSN
0012-9658
DOI
10.1890/11-0066.1
Publisher site
See Article on Publisher Site

Abstract

Thermal constraints on development are often invoked to predict insect distributions. These constraints tend to be characterized in species distribution models (SDMs) by calculating development time based on a constant lower development temperature (LDT). Here, we assessed whether species-specific estimates of LDT based on laboratory experiments can improve the ability of SDMs to predict the distribution shifts of six U.K. butterflies in response to recent climate warming. We find that species-specific and constant (5°C) LDT degree-day models perform similarly at predicting distributions during the period of 1970–1982. However, when the models for the 1970–1982 period are projected to predict distributions in 1995–1999 and 2000–2004, species-specific LDT degree-day models modestly outperform constant LDT degree-day models. Our results suggest that, while including species-specific physiology in correlative models may enhance predictions of species' distribution responses to climate change, more detailed models may be needed to adequately account for interspecific physiological differences.

Journal

EcologyEcological Society of America

Published: Dec 1, 2011

Keywords: Key words : butterflies ; degree-days ; hybrid models ; larval development ; lower developmental threshold ; phenology ; range shifts ; species distribution models ; thermal constraints ; United Kingdom ; voltinism .

There are no references for this article.

You’re reading a free preview. Subscribe to read the entire article.


DeepDyve is your
personal research library

It’s your single place to instantly
discover and read the research
that matters to you.

Enjoy affordable access to
over 18 million articles from more than
15,000 peer-reviewed journals.

All for just $49/month

Explore the DeepDyve Library

Search

Query the DeepDyve database, plus search all of PubMed and Google Scholar seamlessly

Organize

Save any article or search result from DeepDyve, PubMed, and Google Scholar... all in one place.

Access

Get unlimited, online access to over 18 million full-text articles from more than 15,000 scientific journals.

Your journals are on DeepDyve

Read from thousands of the leading scholarly journals from SpringerNature, Elsevier, Wiley-Blackwell, Oxford University Press and more.

All the latest content is available, no embargo periods.

See the journals in your area

DeepDyve

Freelancer

DeepDyve

Pro

Price

FREE

$49/month
$360/year

Save searches from
Google Scholar,
PubMed

Create folders to
organize your research

Export folders, citations

Read DeepDyve articles

Abstract access only

Unlimited access to over
18 million full-text articles

Print

20 pages / month

PDF Discount

20% off