Human-induced disturbances may threaten the viability of many turtle populations, including populations of North American box turtles. Evaluation of the potential impacts of these disturbances can be aided by long-term studies of populations subject to minimal human activity. In such a population of ornate box turtles ( Terrapene ornata ornata ) in western Nebraska, we examined survival rates and population growth rates from 1981––2000 based on mark––recapture data. The average annual apparent survival rate of adult males was 0.883 ( se == 0.021) and of adult females was 0.932 ( se == 0.014). Minimum winter temperature was the best of five climate variables as a predictor of adult survival. Survival rates were highest in years with low minimum winter temperatures, suggesting that global warming may result in declining survival. We estimated an average adult population growth rate ( λλ̂ ) of 1.006 ( se == 0.065), with an estimated temporal process variance ( σσ̂ 2 ) of 0.029 (95%% ci == 0.005––0.176). Stochastic simulations suggest that this mean and temporal process variance would result in a 58%% probability of a population decrease over a 20-year period. This research provides evidence that, unless unknown density-dependent mechanisms are operating in the adult age class, significant human disturbances, such as commercial harvest or turtle mortality on roads, represent a potential risk to box turtle populations.
Ecological Applications – Ecological Society of America
Published: Dec 1, 2005
Keywords: climate ; commercial harvest ; demographics ; human disturbance ; ornate box turtle ; population growth rate ; survival ; temporal process variance ; Terrapene ornata ornata
It’s your single place to instantly
discover and read the research
that matters to you.
Enjoy affordable access to
over 18 million articles from more than
15,000 peer-reviewed journals.
All for just $49/month
Query the DeepDyve database, plus search all of PubMed and Google Scholar seamlessly
Save any article or search result from DeepDyve, PubMed, and Google Scholar... all in one place.
Get unlimited, online access to over 18 million full-text articles from more than 15,000 scientific journals.
Read from thousands of the leading scholarly journals from SpringerNature, Elsevier, Wiley-Blackwell, Oxford University Press and more.
All the latest content is available, no embargo periods.
“Hi guys, I cannot tell you how much I love this resource. Incredible. I really believe you've hit the nail on the head with this site in regards to solving the research-purchase issue.”Daniel C.
“Whoa! It’s like Spotify but for academic articles.”@Phil_Robichaud
“I must say, @deepdyve is a fabulous solution to the independent researcher's problem of #access to #information.”@deepthiw
“My last article couldn't be possible without the platform @deepdyve that makes journal papers cheaper.”@JoseServera