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Abstract. Current land‐use a bandonment and the current rise in temperature in the Alps both suggest that tree limits may change. When it is assumed that the climate of the early mid‐Holocene between 8000 and 5000 yr before present is analogous to that of the predicted climate of the late 21st century, palaeo‐ecological studies of the early Holocene may provide data for the prediction of the vegetation pattern in a century from now. It appears that mid‐Holocene charcoal assemblages can be used to reconstruct the spatial patterns of the vegetation before, or during, the practice of slash‐and‐burn. Correspondence analysis (CA) of charcoal assemblages shows that an important ecological gradient is determined by elevation. However CA also shows that charcoal assemblages in profiles between 1700 and 2100 m a.s.l. are roughly stratified: the more recent assemblages from the topmost centimetres of soil are intermediate between the lowermost assemblages and assemblages from higher elevations. This suggests that the woody communities at the highest elevation were located at lower elevations at a later date. The taxonomic diversity of the soil charcoal assemblages has been compared to that of present‐day phytosociological relevés after transformation to charcoal‐equivalent data. This comparison revealed that the vegetation pattern along the altitudinal gradient in the mid‐Holocene was different from that at present. The assemblages indicate that some communities disappeared, that Picea is a late‐Holocene invading species, and that there is no strict modern analogue for the vegetation structure prior to that of 3000 yr ago. The past structure of the woody vegetation was also different from that of today. Although past vegetation is not a good analogue for predicting future vegetation patterns, it still has potential as an indicator for the potential presence of tree species where there is none today. If we assume a temperature rise, and take into account current trends of landscape use abandonment, then we can expect strong vegetation dynamics at the upper tree line in the future: Abies alba may expand to occupy elevations of ca. 1800–2000 m in mixed communities with Picea abies, Pinus sylvestris and hardwood species, and Pinus cembra may expand up to 2500–2700 m a.s.l.
Journal of Vegetation Science – Wiley
Published: Oct 1, 2000
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