Access the full text.
Sign up today, get DeepDyve free for 14 days.
L. Ginzburg, L. Slobodkin, Keith Johnson, A. Bindman (1982)
Quasiextinction Probabilities as a Measure of Impact on Population GrowthRisk Analysis, 2
R. Lande (1993)
Risks of Population Extinction from Demographic and Environmental Stochasticity and Random CatastrophesThe American Naturalist, 142
(1996)
). 1996 IUCN red list of threatened animalsJ. Theoret. Biol.
D. Ludwig (1996)
The Distribution of Population Survival TimesThe American Naturalist, 147
R. Lacy (1993)
VORTEX: a computer simulation model for population viability analysisWildlife Research, 20
M. S. Boyce (1992)
Population viability analysis.Annu. Rev. Ecol. Syst., 23
M. Groom, M. Pascual (1998)
The Analysis of Population Persistence: An Outlook on the Practice of Viability Analysis
D. Goodman (1987)
Viable populations for conservationOikos
(1969)
Aspects of reproduction in the African elephant, Loxodonta africana
R. Lande (1998)
Demographic stochasticity and Allee effect on a scale with isotropic noiseOikos, 83
C. Santiapillai, H. Suprahman (1986)
The ecology of the elephant (Elephant maximus L.) in the Way Kambas Game Reserve, Sumatra
L. Mills, Stephen Hayes, Calib Baldwin, M. Wisdom, J. Citta, David Mattson, K. Murphy (1996)
Factors Leading to Different Viability Predictions for a Grizzly Bear Data SetConservation Biology, 10
M. Shaffer (1981)
Minimum Population Sizes for Species ConservationBioScience, 31
C. Santiapillai, H. Suprahman (1985)
Habitat management in Way Kambas Game Reserve [Sumatra] with reference to the elephant population (WWF/IUCN Project 3133 - No. 2)
(1993)
Asian elephant in Sumatra: population and habitat viability analysis
L. R. Ginzburg, L. B. Slobodkin, K. Johnson, A. G. Bindman (1982)
Quasiextinction probabilities as a measure of impact on population growth.Am. Nat., 2
M. Marmontel, S. Humphrey, T. O'Shea (1997)
Population Viability Analysis of the Florida Manatee (Trichechus manatus latirostris), 1976–1991Conservation Biology, 11
(1986)
The ecology of the elephant (Elephant maximus L
C. W. Fowler, T. Smith (1973)
Characterizing stable populations: an application to the African elephant population.Risk Anal., 37
S. Tuljapurkar (1982)
Population dynamics in variable environments. III. Evolutionary dynamics of r-selectionTheoretical Population Biology, 21
P. Rosabal (1997)
IUCN [International Union for the Conservation of Nature and Natural Resources] guidelines for protected area management categories: a framework for actions
D. Goodman (1987)
Viable Populations for Conservation: The demography of chance extinction
R. M. Laws (1969)
Aspects of reproduction in the African elephantConserv. Biol., 6
Russell Lande, S. Orzack (1988)
Extinction dynamics of age-structured populations in a fluctuating environment.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 85 19
E. Leigh (1981)
The average lifetime of a population in a varying environment.Journal of theoretical biology, 90 2
M. J. Groom, M. A. Pascual (1998)
Conservation biology for the coming decadeProc. Nat. Acad. Sci. USA
(1986)
Minimum viable populations: the processes of species extinctions
G. M. Mace, R. Lande (1991)
Assessing extinction threats: toward a reevaluation of IUCN threatened species categories.Theoret. Pop. Biol, 5
R. Lande, S. H. Orzack (1988)
Extinction dynamics of age‐structured populations in a fluctuating environment.Conserv. Biol., 85
P. Armbruster, R. Lande (1993)
A Population Viability Analysis for African Elephant (Loxodonta africana): How Big Should Reserves Be?Conservation Biology, 7
G. Mace (1992)
The development of new criteria for listing species on the IUCN Red List., 19
Charles Darwin (1930)
The Genetical Theory of Natural SelectionNature, 126
C. Fowler, Leslie Matrices (1973)
CHARACTERIZING STABLE POPULATIONS: AN APPLICATION TO THE AFRICAN ELEPHANT POPULATION'Journal of Wildlife Management, 37
P. Lee, R. Sukumar (1990)
The Asian Elephant: Ecology and ManagementJournal of Animal Ecology, 59
(1994)
IUCN red list categoriesLoxodonta africana J. Reprod. Fert., Suppl.
G. Mace, R. Lande (1991)
Assessing Extinction Threats: Toward a Reevaluation of IUCN Threatened Species CategoriesConservation Biology, 5
R. C. Lacy (1993)
VORTEX: a computer simulation model for population viability analysis.Am. Nat., 20
R. Lande (1993)
Risks of population extinction from demographic and environmental stochasticity and random catastrophes.Conserv. Biol., 142
M. E. Gilpin, M. E. Soulé (1986)
Conservation biology: the science of scarcity and diversityWildl. Res.
We extend an earlier population viability analysis (PVA) of the Asian elephant (Elephas maximus) conducted by Sukumar & Santiapillai (1993) in order to examine how conclusions about viability can depend upon the time frame examined. We find that there is an approximately 200 year lag period before extinction events begin to occur in slowly declining populations of E. maximus. Therefore, examining population persistence over a 100 year time frame seriously underestimates the risk of population extinction over a longer, 1000 year period. These results are supported by the use of both a species‐specific model of elephant demography, ELEPHANT, and a generic PVA package, VORTEX.
Animal Conservation – Wiley
Published: Feb 1, 1999
Read and print from thousands of top scholarly journals.
Already have an account? Log in
Bookmark this article. You can see your Bookmarks on your DeepDyve Library.
To save an article, log in first, or sign up for a DeepDyve account if you don’t already have one.
Copy and paste the desired citation format or use the link below to download a file formatted for EndNote
Access the full text.
Sign up today, get DeepDyve free for 14 days.
All DeepDyve websites use cookies to improve your online experience. They were placed on your computer when you launched this website. You can change your cookie settings through your browser.