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Time frames for population viability analysis of species with long generations: an example with Asian elephants

Time frames for population viability analysis of species with long generations: an example with... We extend an earlier population viability analysis (PVA) of the Asian elephant (Elephas maximus) conducted by Sukumar & Santiapillai (1993) in order to examine how conclusions about viability can depend upon the time frame examined. We find that there is an approximately 200 year lag period before extinction events begin to occur in slowly declining populations of E. maximus. Therefore, examining population persistence over a 100 year time frame seriously underestimates the risk of population extinction over a longer, 1000 year period. These results are supported by the use of both a species‐specific model of elephant demography, ELEPHANT, and a generic PVA package, VORTEX. http://www.deepdyve.com/assets/images/DeepDyve-Logo-lg.png Animal Conservation Wiley

Time frames for population viability analysis of species with long generations: an example with Asian elephants

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References (39)

Publisher
Wiley
Copyright
"Copyright © 1999 Wiley Subscription Services, Inc., A Wiley Company"
ISSN
1367-9430
eISSN
1469-1795
DOI
10.1111/j.1469-1795.1999.tb00050.x
Publisher site
See Article on Publisher Site

Abstract

We extend an earlier population viability analysis (PVA) of the Asian elephant (Elephas maximus) conducted by Sukumar & Santiapillai (1993) in order to examine how conclusions about viability can depend upon the time frame examined. We find that there is an approximately 200 year lag period before extinction events begin to occur in slowly declining populations of E. maximus. Therefore, examining population persistence over a 100 year time frame seriously underestimates the risk of population extinction over a longer, 1000 year period. These results are supported by the use of both a species‐specific model of elephant demography, ELEPHANT, and a generic PVA package, VORTEX.

Journal

Animal ConservationWiley

Published: Feb 1, 1999

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