Access the full text.
Sign up today, get DeepDyve free for 14 days.
M. Wisdom, L. Mills, D. Doak (2000)
Life Stage Simulation Analysis: Estimating Vital-Rate Effects on Population Growth for ConservationEcology, 81
J. Gaillard, M. Festa‐Bianchet, N. Yoccoz (1998)
Population dynamics of large herbivores: variable recruitment with constant adult survival.Trends in ecology & evolution, 13 2
J. Spendelow, J. Nichols, J. Hines, J. Lebreton, R. Pradel (2002)
Modelling postfledging survival and age-specific breeding probabilities in species with delayed maturity: A case study of Roseate Terns at Falkner Island, ConnecticutJournal of Applied Statistics, 29
B. Nelson (1979)
Seabirds, their biology and ecology
J. Gaillard, M. Festa‐Bianchet, N. Yoccoz, A. Loison, C. Toïgo (2000)
Temporal Variation in Fitness Components and Population Dynamics of Large HerbivoresAnnual Review of Ecology, Evolution, and Systematics, 31
(1985)
The nature of El Niño: a perspective
T. Benton, A. Grant (1996)
How to Keep Fit in the Real World: Elasticity Analyses and Selection Pressures on Life Histories in a Variable EnvironmentThe American Naturalist, 147
E. Rasmusson, J. Wallace (1983)
Meteorological Aspects of the El Ni�o/Southern OscillationScience, 222
S. Heppell, H. Caswell, L. Crowder (2000)
LIFE HISTORIES AND ELASTICITY PATTERNS: PERTURBATION ANALYSIS FOR SPECIES WITH MINIMAL DEMOGRAPHIC DATAEcology, 81
E. Schreiber (1994)
El Nino-Southern Oscillation Effects on Provisioning and Growth in Red-Tailed Tropicbirds, 17
G. White (1983)
Numerical estimation of survival rates from band-recovery and biotelemetry dataJournal of Wildlife Management, 47
K. Trenberth, G. Branstator, D. Karoly, Arun Kumar, N. Lau, C. Ropelewski (1998)
Progress during TOGA in understanding and modeling global teleconnections associated with tropical sea surface temperaturesJournal of Geophysical Research, 103
J. Calladine, F. Buner, N. Aebischer (1999)
Temporal variations in the singing activity and the detection of Turtle Doves Streptopelia turtur: implications for surveysBird Study, 46
M. Glantz (1996)
Currents of Change: El Niño's Impact on Climate and Society
(1990)
Life history and population dynamics of resident killer whales (Orcinus orea) in the coastal waters of British Columbia and Washington State
W. Link, P. Doherty (2002)
SCALING IN SENSITIVITY ANALYSISEcology, 83
(2000)
Life stage Wyrtki, K
Hatch Hatch (1987)
Did the 1982–1983 El‐Niño‐southern oscillation affect seabirds in AlaskaWilson Bull., 99
G. Seber (1965)
A NOTE ON THE MULTIPLE-RECAPTURE CENSUS.Biometrika, 52
E. Schreiber, J. Burger (2001)
Biology of marine birds
J. Hodder, Michael Graybill (1985)
Reproduction and survival of seabirds in Oregon during the 1982-1983 El NiñoThe Condor, 87
S. Stearns, T. Kawecki (1994)
FITNESS SENSITIVITY AND THE CANALIZATION OF LIFE‐HISTORY TRAITSEvolution, 48
R. Schreiber, E. Schreiber (1984)
Central Pacific Seabirds and the El Ni�o Southern Oscillation: 1982 to 1983 PerspectivesScience, 225
D. Cairns (1992)
Population Regulation of Seabird Colonies
M. Cane (1983)
Oceanographic Events During El Ni�oScience, 222
H. Caswell (2001)
Matrix population models : construction, analysis, and interpretation
K. Wyrtki (1975)
El Niño—The Dynamic Response of the Equatorial Pacific Oceanto Atmospheric ForcingJournal of Physical Oceanography, 5
G. Jolly (1965)
EXPLICIT ESTIMATES FROM CAPTURE-RECAPTURE DATA WITH BOTH DEATH AND IMMIGRATION-STOCHASTIC MODEL.Biometrika, 52
(2000)
Breeding biology and ecology of the seabirds of Johnston Atoll, Cental Pacific Ocean, 1998: longterm monitoring for effects of Johnston Atoll chemical demihtarization project 1984-1998
S. Baird, John Cassin, G. Lawrence (1974)
The birds of North America
C. Schwarz, A. Arnason (2000)
Estimation of Age‐Specific Breeding Probabilities from Capture–Recapture DataBiometrics, 56
K. Burnham, David Anderson (2003)
Model selection and multimodel inference : a practical information-theoretic approachJournal of Wildlife Management, 67
T. Work, R. Rameyer (1999)
MASS STRANDING OF WEDGE-TAILED SHEARWATER CHICKS IN HAWAII, 35
Stéphane Legendre, J. Clobert (1995)
ULM, a software for conservation and evolutionary biologistsJournal of Applied Statistics, 22
K. Pollock, J. Skalski, D. Robson (1994)
Techniques for Wildlife Investigations, Design and Analysis of Capture DataJournal of Wildlife Management, 58
N. Nur, W. Sydeman (1999)
Demographic Processes and Population Dynamic Models of Seabirds
(2000)
Does El Niño affect survival rate of Mediterranean populations of Cory ' s shearwater ?
(1993)
The red-tailed tropicbird (Phaethon ruhricauda)
T. Benton, A. Grant (1999)
Elasticity analysis as an important tool in evolutionary and population ecology.Trends in ecology & evolution, 14 12
J. King (1997)
Currents of change: El Niño's impact on climate and societyWeather, 52
J. Lebreton, J. Hines, R. Pradel, J. Nichols, J. Spendelow (2003)
Estimation by capture-recapture of recruitment and dispersal over several sitesOikos, 101
S. Hatch (1987)
Did the 1982-1983 El Niño-Southern oscillation affect seabirds in Alaska?The Wilson Journal of Ornithology, 99
C. Hunter, H. Moller, D. Fletcher (2000)
Parameter uncertainty and elasticity analyses of a population model: setting research priorities for shearwatersEcological Modelling, 134
A. Troup (1965)
The ‘southern oscillation’Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 91
R. Pradel, J. Lebreton (1999)
Comparison of different approaches to the study of local recruitment of breedersBird Study, 46
J. Hines, J. Sauer (1989)
Program CONTRAST: a general program for the analysis of several survival or recovery rate estimates
J. Lebreton, K. Burnham, J. Clobert, David Anderson (1992)
Modeling Survival and Testing Biological Hypotheses Using Marked Animals: A Unified Approach with Case StudiesEcological Monographs, 62
J. Clobert, J. Lebreton, D. Allainé, J. Gaillard (1990)
The estimation of age-specific breeding probabilities from recaptures or resightings in vertebrate populations: II. Longitudinal models.Biometrics, 50 2
A. Franklin, David Anderson, R. Gutiérrez, K. Burnham (2000)
CLIMATE, HABITAT QUALITY, AND FITNESS IN NORTHERN SPOTTED OWL POPULATIONS IN NORTHWESTERN CALIFORNIAEcological Monographs, 70
(1989)
Insights into seabird ecology from a global natural experiment
S. Heppell (1998)
Application of Life-History Theory and Population Model Analysis to Turtle ConservationCopeia, 1998
Dj Anderson (1989)
Differential responses of boobies and other seabirds in the Galapagos to the 1986-87 El Nino-Southern Oscillation eventMarine Ecology Progress Series, 52
C. Pfister (1998)
Patterns of variance in stage-structured populations: evolutionary predictions and ecological implications.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 95 1
R. Cormack (1964)
Estimates of survival from the sighting of marked animalsBiometrika, 51
D. Duffy (1990)
Seabirds and the 1982-1984 El Niño-Southern OscillationElsevier oceanography series, 52
J. Beadell, E. Schreiber, R. Schreiber, G. Schenk, P. Doherty (2003)
SURVIVAL OF BROWN BOOBIES (SULA LEUCOGASTER) AT JOHNSTON ATOLL: A LONG-TERM STUDY, 120
B. Sæther, Ø. Bakke (2000)
AVIAN LIFE HISTORY VARIATION AND CONTRIBUTION OF DEMOGRAPHIC TRAITS TO THE POPULATION GROWTH RATEEcology, 81
M. Conroy, K. Burnham, David Anderson, G. White, C. Brownie, K. Pollock (1988)
Design and Analysis Methods for Fish Survival Experiments Based on Release-Recapture.Journal of Applied Ecology, 25
(1988)
ENSO effects on Pacific Ocean marine bird populations
E. Bailey, Glenn Davenport (1972)
Die-off of Common Murres on the Alaska Peninsula and Unimak IslandThe Condor, 74
P. Boersma (1998)
Population trends of the Galápagos Penguin : Impacts of el niño and la niñaThe Condor, 100
K. Trenberth (1997)
The Definition of El Niño.Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 78
G. Kiladis, H. Loon (1988)
The Southern Oscillation. Part VII: Meteorological Anomalies over the Indian and Pacific Sectors Associated with the Extremes of the OscillationMonthly Weather Review, 116
S. Brault, H. Caswell (1993)
Pod-specific demography of killer whales(Orcinus orca).Ecology, 74
P. Forslund, T. Pärt (1995)
Age and reproduction in birds - hypotheses and tests.Trends in ecology & evolution, 10 9
W. Gould, J. Nichols (1998)
Estimation of temporal variability of survival in animal populationsEcology, 79
(2002)
Analysis Work, T
W. Link, J. Nichols (1994)
On the importance of sampling variance to investigations of temporal variation in animal population sizeOikos, 69
J. Skalski, D. Robson (1993)
Techniques for wildlife investigations : design and analysis of capture data
Life history theory and associated empirical generalizations predict that population growth rate (λ) in long‐lived animals should be most sensitive to adult survival; the rates to which λ is most sensitive should be those with the smallest temporal variances; and stochastic environmental events should most affect the rates to which λ is least sensitive. To date, most analyses attempting to examine these predictions have been inadequate, their validity being called into question by problems in estimating parameters, problems in estimating the variability of parameters, and problems in measuring population sensitivities to parameters. We use improved methodologies in these three areas and test these life‐history predictions in a population of red‐tailed tropicbirds (Phaethon rubricauda). We support our first prediction that λ is most sensitive to survival rates. However the support for the second prediction that these rates have the smallest temporal variance was equivocal. Previous support for the second prediction may be an artifact of a high survival estimate near the upper boundary of 1 and not a result of natural selection canalizing variances alone. We did not support our third prediction that effects of environmental stochasticity (El Niño) would most likely be detected in vital rates to which λ was least sensitive and which are thought to have high temporal variances. Comparative data‐sets on other seabirds, within and among orders, and in other locations, are needed to understand these environmental effects.
Oikos – Wiley
Published: Jun 1, 2004
Read and print from thousands of top scholarly journals.
Already have an account? Log in
Bookmark this article. You can see your Bookmarks on your DeepDyve Library.
To save an article, log in first, or sign up for a DeepDyve account if you don’t already have one.
Copy and paste the desired citation format or use the link below to download a file formatted for EndNote
Access the full text.
Sign up today, get DeepDyve free for 14 days.
All DeepDyve websites use cookies to improve your online experience. They were placed on your computer when you launched this website. You can change your cookie settings through your browser.