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LO57 So, the general feeling from information given LO58 is that he can tolerate a lung biopsy with some appropriate therapy LO59 such as blood transfusions, LO60 prior to the time that it's done
Invasive biopsy over No change in therapy
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TBBx vs. OLBx
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A.2. Final Script Analysis Thus, the final result of the script analysis is a sequence of operators applied to various aspects of the description of the case
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let me just get back to that for a moment
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LlOO So I would do the lung biopsy LlOl and would probably get a
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ON REPRESENTING COMMONSENSE KNOWLEDGE
LlOO-L105 REVIEW: plan steps
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LO86 So he does have a pretty low count LO87 and in a sense he is suppressed LO88 for overcoming any type of infectious organism
This appendix presents the complete sets of categorical, ordinal, and numerical range descriptions appearing in one of the transcripts (VP-18)
A. Newell (1973)
Human Problem Solving
How do people make difficult decisions in situations involving substantial risk and uncertainty? In this study, we presented a difficult medical decision to three expert physicians in a combined “thinking aloud” and “cross examination” experiment. Verbatim transcripts were analyzed using script analysis to observe the process of constructing and making the decision, and using referring phrase analysis to determine the representation of knowledge of likelihoods. These analyses are compared with a formal decision analysis of the same problem to highlight similarities and differences. The process of making the decision resembles an incremental, sequential‐refinement planning algorithm, where a complex decision is broken into a sequence of choices to be made with a simplified description of the alternatives. This strategy results in certain kinds of relevant information being underweighted in the final decision. Knowledge of likelihood appears to be represented as symbolic descriptions capturing categorical and ordinal relations with “landrhark” likelihoods, only some of which are described numerically. Numerical probabilities, capable of being combined and compared arithmetically, were not observed. These observations suggest an explanation for the heuristics and biases in human decision making under uncertainty in terms of the processes that manipulate symbolic descriptions of likelihoods and construct plans of action for situations involving risk and uncertainty.
Cognitive Science - A Multidisciplinary Journal – Wiley
Published: Apr 1, 1988
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